2014 = Surprising Trends

USV8PWR

Member
Established Member
Joined
Mar 10, 2012
Messages
892
Location
Austin TX
Boy. I'd REALLY be careful making "inside information" assumptions. Attribute at your own risk.

From a purely business case perspective, Ford is far likelier to cut loose whatever GT500s may have been made if overall S197 stocks exceed the gameplan. From this point forward, plus perhaps another few hundred, I'd personally consider any further builds to be a pleasant (or not) surprise with any further orders being subject to cancellation - allocated or not.

LoL...well put another way Madlock...you have access to information most on here do not. And I have no reason to doubt that information. We all appreciate you sharing!

And you and I seem to be thinking along the same lines. You are now thinking that besides a few hundred more, any future orders beyond that probably won't get built. All I can logically project is that based on your current production numbers and the known allocations that have already been scheduled/built the total allocation for MY14 Shelby GT500 was approximately only 3,500 cars. I further believe that number is true because I recall this number some months ago as a projection someone had stated they had heard (Iceman, Chris...someone). But as you said, Ford may decide to build a few more over that original allocated number if they still have the production capacity and Shelby specific parts laying around as MY14 winds down or they may not if there are too many sitting around.

I still believe total production of the MY13/MY14 Shelby will be 9,000 cars or less. Less than half the total production of the MY03/MY04 SVT Cobra.
 

Madlock

Member
Established Member
Joined
Sep 26, 2010
Messages
411
Location
The Last Free U.S. State
LoL...well put another way Madlock...you have access to information most on here do not. And I have no reason to doubt that information. We all appreciate you sharing!

And you and I seem to be thinking along the same lines. You are now thinking that besides a few hundred more, any future orders beyond that probably won't get built. All I can logically project is that based on your current production numbers and the known allocations that have already been scheduled/built the total allocation for MY14 Shelby GT500 was approximately only 3,500 cars. I further believe that number is true because I recall this number some months ago as a projection someone had stated they had heard (Iceman, Chris...someone). But as you said, Ford may decide to build a few more over that original allocated number if they still have the production capacity and Shelby specific parts laying around as MY14 winds down or they may not if there are too many sitting around.

I still believe total production of the MY13/MY14 Shelby will be 9,000 cars or less. Less than half the total production of the MY03/MY04 SVT Cobra.

I actually have no suspicions one way or the other about how many '14s will be made. What I DO think is the marketplace will rightfully tend to look upon '13/'14 as a single entity, which dealers have already tended to do.

For me, especially after having acquired a BOSS for track driving and a GT for tooling around town, the real question is whether rolling-off any miles the '13s will have accumulated is worth having "clean slate" '14s.

Not that I think it's likely to make a dollar's bit of difference now or in the future, but my personal preference is for the FIRST year of a particular model of distinction, which people seem to remember versus the last. Being SVT's 20th made it all the better.

I just wish Ford hadn't changed Whites which kept me from owning a matching set that could consist of one from each year - or that I had developed a greater affinity for a different color combination from the onset.

But that's spilled milk at this point - and sometimes it's easy to forget that just being in the position to have this kind of "dilemma" is a pretty terrific place to be in the first place.
 

5BANERZ

New Member
Established Member
Joined
May 30, 2013
Messages
99
Location
Michigan
No such cars exist, unless it also includes the car cover. 1ZVBP8JZXE5242186

Thanks Madlock. That is my VIN. Took a drive to Ramp 51 today and got to see her and get a few pics. Today was ETA to dealer #3 and she is still sitting. They need to ship her ASAP.
 

Madlock

Member
Established Member
Joined
Sep 26, 2010
Messages
411
Location
The Last Free U.S. State
Quick update. Just noted a huge leap in forward scheduling with GT500 builds on apparent hiatus from the holiday weekend until July 29 as the first day of resumption.

That strips out as many as 600 units or capacity by time between now and S197's sunset. Of course, much or all of this was prescheduled summer downtime and none of it may reflect any deviation from Ford's square one agenda. But there WILL be an early-mid August lull in deliveries (likely of all S197 flavors) before the last round of allocations and build-out are made.

I'll leave any further speculation to the calendar watchers and mathematical reverse engineers.
 

hockeylover86

Member
Established Member
Joined
Apr 14, 2007
Messages
386
Location
Michigan
Once again, thanks for all the info you provide.

One thing I wonder about though...

Anybody else find it odd/silly that we have to speculate if a mass-production car manufacturer will build to fill already sold retail orders for a $60K+ vehicle...
 

Madlock

Member
Established Member
Joined
Sep 26, 2010
Messages
411
Location
The Last Free U.S. State
Once again, thanks for all the info you provide.

One thing I wonder about though...

Anybody else find it odd/silly that we have to speculate if a mass-production car manufacturer will build to fill already sold retail orders for a $60K+ vehicle...

No, not at all, actually - since GT500 is a product that's only built because it can be accommodated within the manufacturing infrastructure of every other kind of Mustang which comprise about 95% of all Mustangs produced.

There's lots of reasons that would take too long to explain here, but let's just leave it with GM proved how much money can be lost by building and selling as many cars as possible - rather than manufacturing to actual demand for product that's sold for maximum profit on a manufacturer's terms.

MORE than half of Ford's resurgence from worst to first has come from identifying the trade it DIDN'T want to serve, aggressively abandoning it and maintaining strict discipline despite whatever handful of additional profitable volume it may leave on the table - which has ensured that any volume gains have been purely additive and profitable rather than erosive and cannibalistic.

It's also important to remember that no Ford customer is flakier than a GT500 shopper when it comes to actually following through on orders advance deposits or no. Ford knows what inventories are versus what's built with the difference being what's sold. They know how many days' supply of overall cars exist - and dealers will be resourceful among themselves in terms of arranging to get cars to dealers without cars who have willing customers from dealers with cars but no customers.

But even that's secondary to how many thousands more GT500s Ford would need to sell to make all the downstream consequences pay-off of moving cadences, compelling suppliers to perform and everything else that'd be required. This was one of the first myths Mulally dispelled when he first came to Detroit back in 2006 and GM and Chrysler were scoffing at the notion because a "non-car person" couldn't possibly understand the complexities of operating a global auto making enterprise.

When someone once made the mistake of trying to patronize his insistence upon looking at the manufacturing of automobiles first and foremost like any OTHER business by telling him something to the effect of, "I'm not sure you fully appreciate how complex building a product with thousands of moving parts from dozens of vendors can be." Having just finished doing for Boeing's commercial airplane division what he has since done for Ford, he simply replied to the effect of, "I just ran a company that made products comprised of millions of moving parts from thousands of vendors - that also needed to stay airborne. I think I'll figure out this too."

Nobody within the industry has underestimated him since.
 
Last edited:

USV8PWR

Member
Established Member
Joined
Mar 10, 2012
Messages
892
Location
Austin TX
Updated revised totals for the scheduled builds through the end of June are 2,449 Coupes and 493 Convertibles. Just 8 shy of 3,000 - which makes for a VERY healthy number given the particular point in the 2014 MY campaign.

So as of the end of June 2013, 2.449 + 493 = 2,942 cars have been built or scheduled....

Quick update. Just noted a huge leap in forward scheduling with GT500 builds on apparent hiatus from the holiday weekend until July 29 as the first day of resumption.

That strips out as many as 600 units or capacity by time between now and S197's sunset. Of course, much or all of this was prescheduled summer downtime and none of it may reflect any deviation from Ford's square one agenda. But there WILL be an early-mid August lull in deliveries (likely of all S197 flavors) before the last round of allocations and build-out are made.

I'll leave any further speculation to the calendar watchers and mathematical reverse engineers.


Excellent info update Madlock! Haha, yeah now we can really crunch some numbers.

So taking the 2,942 above + the 600 estimated you have seen that have been scheduled to be built AFTER the plant shut's down you will have a total of roughly 3,542 units originally allocated to be built for MY14. Again reinforcing my prior belief that total production for this year will be from 3,500 to 4,000. And now I'm thinking that total number may never reach the upper end of my range due to time contraints.
 

Madlock

Member
Established Member
Joined
Sep 26, 2010
Messages
411
Location
The Last Free U.S. State
I don't know how you could've arrived at the apparent estimates you've deduced based upon any information I provided but, as long as I don't have to own responsibility for anything more than anything I've stated as fact, have at it by all means!
 

tomshep

Another R Addict
Established Member
Joined
Feb 9, 2003
Messages
4,372
Location
Republic of Texas
All interesting reading.

My understanding is Ford wants to debut the 15 model in April 2014 at their anniversary celebration events. I would think they wants cars hitting the showing immediately after that.

Working backwards from that date, how long will it take Ford to reconfigure the plant for 15 production? 2 months? 3 months? I don't know.

Up to that cut-off for conversion, I would think Ford would be willing to produce cars. That is their business. I believe the plant is idle for 4-5 weeks for the Fusion to be added. If they could do that in no more than 5 weeks couldn't they install everything for the 15 model in the same time-frame? I am sure others know more on this topic.

Regardless, I don't see why Ford wouldn't go ahead and produce all the way to the Christmas break.

Tom
 

Gabed1972

Active Member
Established Member
Joined
Jun 26, 2013
Messages
253
Location
RI
Question on recently placed order

I live in Rhode Island, My local dealer indicated that Ford rep gave them an additional allocation and I was told that the order needed to be replaced by this Tuesday 6/25/13 by 5pm To get the order scheduled and it would show in the system on Friday. :??:

I placed an order for 2014 Shelby GT 500 convertible, 821, ruby red, white stripes, recaro's, navigation, shaker pro...

After reading all the posts I'm concerned that maybe my car will not get built?:fm:

If the dealer doesn't fact have an allocation how long does it typically take to get an order scheduled and a vin number? :idea:
 

biminiLX

never stock
Established Member
Premium Member
Joined
Jan 17, 2003
Messages
13,253
Location
Toledo, OH
There's no guarantee however if the order shows in system I think you should feel better that it likely will?
-J
 

Chris!

Former Ford Dealer
Established Member
Joined
Aug 16, 2004
Messages
7,692
Location
Boston MA
I live in Rhode Island, My local dealer indicated that Ford rep gave them an additional allocation and I was told that the order needed to be replaced by this Tuesday 6/25/13 by 5pm To get the order scheduled and it would show in the system on Friday. :??:

I placed an order for 2014 Shelby GT 500 convertible, 821, ruby red, white stripes, recaro's, navigation, shaker pro...

After reading all the posts I'm concerned that maybe my car will not get built?:fm:

If the dealer doesn't fact have an allocation how long does it typically take to get an order scheduled and a vin number? :idea:



That's entirely possible.

Flood or Tasca?
 

Gabed1972

Active Member
Established Member
Joined
Jun 26, 2013
Messages
253
Location
RI
I ordered it through flood ford. (Why do you ask) does it make a difference?

I spoke to the GM Joe Turchetti. I think he's a straight shooter. Just hope he's not getting incorrect info. I was told the order will show in the system tomorrow morning and I should have a build date?

:??:

Guess I will find out tomorrow ..
 

Chris!

Former Ford Dealer
Established Member
Joined
Aug 16, 2004
Messages
7,692
Location
Boston MA
I was hoping it was one of those two, as they both have great relationships with Ford. You should feel confident with Flood
 

reason4treason

Member
Established Member
Joined
Mar 11, 2012
Messages
998
No, not at all, actually - since GT500 is a product that's only built because it can be accommodated within the manufacturing infrastructure of every other kind of Mustang which comprise about 95% of all Mustangs produced.

There's lots of reasons that would take too long to explain here, but let's just leave it with GM proved how much money can be lost by building and selling as many cars as possible - rather than manufacturing to actual demand for product that's sold for maximum profit on a manufacturer's terms.

MORE than half of Ford's resurgence from worst to first has come from identifying the trade it DIDN'T want to serve, aggressively abandoning it and maintaining strict discipline despite whatever handful of additional profitable volume it may leave on the table - which has ensured that any volume gains have been purely additive and profitable rather than erosive and cannibalistic.

It's also important to remember that no Ford customer is flakier than a GT500 shopper when it comes to actually following through on orders advance deposits or no. Ford knows what inventories are versus what's built with the difference being what's sold. They know how many days' supply of overall cars exist - and dealers will be resourceful among themselves in terms of arranging to get cars to dealers without cars who have willing customers from dealers with cars but no customers.

But even that's secondary to how many thousands more GT500s Ford would need to sell to make all the downstream consequences pay-off of moving cadences, compelling suppliers to perform and everything else that'd be required. This was one of the first myths Mulally dispelled when he first came to Detroit back in 2006 and GM and Chrysler were scoffing at the notion because a "non-car person" couldn't possibly understand the complexities of operating a global auto making enterprise.

When someone once made the mistake of trying to patronize his insistence upon looking at the manufacturing of automobiles first and foremost like any OTHER business by telling him something to the effect of, "I'm not sure you fully appreciate how complex building a product with thousands of moving parts from dozens of vendors can be." Having just finished doing for Boeing's commercial airplane division what he has since done for Ford, he simply replied to the effect of, "I just ran a company that made products comprised of millions of moving parts from thousands of vendors - that also needed to stay airborne. I think I'll figure out this too."

Nobody within the industry has underestimated him since.

thank you Madlock. that makes perfect sense to me. however fanatical some small percentage of the population may be about a car that is worth being fanatical about, the corporation has overall profit as its prime concern. any particular individual who is just dying to get his/her order may see it as ridiculous that Ford would not want to build every single "sold" order but that's from their perspective, not the corporation who places corporate success first above building/selling any individual wow-factor vehicle. from the view of Ford, GT500 is a tiny slice of the pie. if there's a substantial risk of losing money by building every single order, then yes, they might turn off the spigot.

what do you think is the reason that customer service at Ford/SVT will not confirm or deny that any given order is truly covered by a dealer allocation? when i asked them last year, i was told that the regional sales manager (the "rep" as most seem to call him/her) gets a particular number of allocations per that specific region and he/she decides which dealers get how many allocations...assuming they've paid the 2-year fee and are eligible. it seems like not allowing individual customers privvy to true allocation status is a way of promoting dealership autonomy which is a part of the dynamic that Ford wants to have with its dealers. any insight on that dynamic as you're aware of or as you'd deduce is probably the case?

any individual customer who has been waiting for what he/she sees as too long and too frustrating would probably go to another dealer if they knew their order wasn't currently covered. but if they don't know their true status, and are frustrated, maybe they'll buy something else off that dealer's lot, so that particular dealer still keeps the customer's business. i know some dealers get an additional allocation too when some are redistributed later in the model year but that's a different issue from knowing allocation status when you place an order before that time. if it's all about 'big picture' profit, how does keeping a customer in the dark about allocation status promote that?

Ford/SVT told me they didn't know how my 'rep' had them divided and my dealer would not let me talk to my rep. i tried to find a way to first find out who it was (there was some list that had every rep in the world). somebody on this forum told me how he found his somehow available via google, and had that person's 'linked in' name, contacted him that way and he says he actually got a response. i'm in the SF Bay Area. the list (just did a google search for: ford sales zone manager) said my rep was Raquel Tapia but i could never get a reply and nobody would confirm that for me at Ford/SVT or my Ford dealer.
 
Last edited:

Users who are viewing this thread



Top