Let me preface this by saying this is not a homework problem. This is a YEAR long debate amongst my friends, my fiance, and myself. It started last year when my fiance, then GF, bought 4 squares on a 10x10 super bowl "board" at work. Along the top numbers 0-9 were written and team "X". Along the side numbers 0-9 were written and team "y". At the end of each quarter the teams score would be used to pick a winner on the board. Only the last number of each score would be used. So a score of 7-7, 17-7, 27-27, or 17-17 would all yield the same winner. Also, you can win more than 1 quarter if there is no score change, or a teams score increases by some multiple of 10. Now, assuming that any score is likely, and one isn't more favorable than the other, what are the odds that she would win at least 1 time, by the end of the game? My rough estimate, of winning one event by the end of the night was 16 in 100. I know to do it properly you actually calculate the odds of NOT winning, then extrapolate that over 4 events. I think this estimate is relatively close though. Essentially, she, and everyone else at the super bowl party, believed that because the winners name is put back in for each quarterly drawing, that your odds stayed the same for the OVERALL likely hood of winning. She stated that they could play 100 quarters of football, have a drawing after each quarter, and the OVERALL likely hood of winning is still 4 in 100. My argument is that more drawings, increases your likely hood, even if the winner of quarter 1 is eligible to win quarter 2. So who's right? Anyone got any formulas I can use to back up my claim, or am I dead wrong?