BITCOIN

CompOrange04GT

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“ I’m trying to find a reason to buy “

Because when it was at 9k wasn’t enough reason for you since you know .. you would have at one point made over 5 times your investment..

But hey.. keep waiting
 

Weather Man

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“ I’m trying to find a reason to buy “

Because when it was at 9k wasn’t enough reason for you since you know .. you would have at one point made over 5 times your investment..

But hey.. keep waiting

Betting on irrational exuberance is something I couldn't make myself do. I have said before, congrats to those who made money on it. That bet hasn't paid off since the last peak early in 2021.
 

Klaus

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“ I’m trying to find a reason to buy “

Because when it was at 9k wasn’t enough reason for you since you know .. you would have at one point made over 5 times your investment..

But hey.. keep waiting

What is the fair value of BTC? Not the price but the value?

This is easy to do with any asset that is actually worth something.

You can value your house based on appraisal. Or comparable transactions. Or mortgage payment relative to income.

Stocks are valued based on the present value of future cash flow from dividends. They can also be valued as a multiple of earnings since equity holders have a claim on earnings.

Bonds are valued based on the present value of future cash flows relative to prevailing interest rates.

Real estate is valued based on the yield on the property relative to the price. A multiple is applied based on prevailing interest rates.

Pretend for a moment you have a bitcoin but you have no price information. You must value it. How do you do so?
 

Weather Man

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What is the fair value of BTC? Not the price but the value?

This is easy to do with any asset that is actually worth something.

You can value your house based on appraisal. Or comparable transactions. Or mortgage payment relative to income.

Stocks are valued based on the present value of future cash flow from dividends. They can also be valued as a multiple of earnings since equity holders have a claim on earnings.

Bonds are valued based on the present value of future cash flows relative to prevailing interest rates.

Real estate is valued based on the yield on the property relative to the price. A multiple is applied based on prevailing interest rates.

Pretend for a moment you have a bitcoin but you have no price information. You must value it. How do you do so?

Great post. I'm stealing it, LOL.
 

Weather Man

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I have noticed some decoupling of crypto to the market. Let's see if that trend continues. To see what the big boy super computers are spitting out would be fun.
 

Deceptive

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What football player had his salary paid in bitcoin? I wonder if he off’d himself yet?


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VegasMichael

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It might depend on how their payment contract is phrased. If it was written/agreed that they would get X amount of BTC by a certain date in the future and they've not received it yet or only part of it, they may not take a huge hit.
 

Weather Man

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What is the fair value of BTC? Not the price but the value?

This is easy to do with any asset that is actually worth something.

You can value your house based on appraisal. Or comparable transactions. Or mortgage payment relative to income.

Stocks are valued based on the present value of future cash flow from dividends. They can also be valued as a multiple of earnings since equity holders have a claim on earnings.

Bonds are valued based on the present value of future cash flows relative to prevailing interest rates.

Real estate is valued based on the yield on the property relative to the price. A multiple is applied based on prevailing interest rates.

Pretend for a moment you have a bitcoin but you have no price information. You must value it. How do you do so?

It is amazing that the answer I keep seeing over on SA is that the value of BTC is determined by what it costs to produce. That must be a talking point being spit out by the youtube pushers.
 

Klaus

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It is amazing that the answer I keep seeing over on SA is that the value of BTC is determined by what it costs to produce. That must be a talking point being spit out by the youtube pushers.

That is a fair response if you think of BTC as stored energy. It is certainly one way to think of it. This assumes there is actually utility in the end product though.

There have been plenty of interesting arbitrage opportunities of long or short nat gas relative to bitcoin. But there is a SHITTON of basis risk in that trade.
 

Klaus

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It is amazing that the answer I keep seeing over on SA is that the value of BTC is determined by what it costs to produce. That must be a talking point being spit out by the youtube pushers.

You can also say this about equities, too. There seems to be some belief that the market should trade at this or that p/e. But it is all made up.

There is no reason that the market or even a stock should trade for a particular multiple. Finance is not physics.
 

Weather Man

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That is a fair response if you think of BTC as stored energy. It is certainly one way to think of it. This assumes there is actually utility in the end product though.

There have been plenty of interesting arbitrage opportunities of long or short nat gas relative to bitcoin. But there is a SHITTON of basis risk in that trade.

It takes energy to produce anything, and you are right that about the utility aspect in the end mattering a LOT. Like Buffet said, you have a thing you can't hold in your hand that does absolutely nothing.

Hats off to the people who convinced people to buy encrypted packets of zero's and one's. Biggest marketing success story ever.
 

jvandy50

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An interesting tweet about BTC production cost vs price action yesterday



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CompOrange04GT

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What is the fair value of BTC? Not the price but the value?

This is easy to do with any asset that is actually worth something.

You can value your house based on appraisal. Or comparable transactions. Or mortgage payment relative to income.

Stocks are valued based on the present value of future cash flow from dividends. They can also be valued as a multiple of earnings since equity holders have a claim on earnings.

Bonds are valued based on the present value of future cash flows relative to prevailing interest rates.

Real estate is valued based on the yield on the property relative to the price. A multiple is applied based on prevailing interest rates.

Pretend for a moment you have a bitcoin but you have no price information. You must value it. How do you do so?

Whatever someone will pay.

If someone says “ I’ll take 1 Bitcoin for this car “ the Bitcoin was worth that car.

AMC at one point took dogecoin. They took the equivalent of X dogecoin to match up with said ticket price.

The value is what the “ investors make it out to be” same with stock. Before the split.. at one point Tesla was $1000 a share. At that moment that was the value of the company as a whole.

Same with Bit. At one point it was $5 at one point it was $60k
 

Klaus

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Whatever someone will pay.

If someone says “ I’ll take 1 Bitcoin for this car “ the Bitcoin was worth that car.

AMC at one point took dogecoin. They took the equivalent of X dogecoin to match up with said ticket price.

The value is what the “ investors make it out to be” same with stock. Before the split.. at one point Tesla was $1000 a share. At that moment that was the value of the company as a whole.

Same with Bit. At one point it was $5 at one point it was $60k

You are describing "price" not "value." But point taken.
 

CompOrange04GT

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You are describing "price" not "value." But point taken.

At one point I “ valued “ it higher than stocks ? I’m not sure what you mean.

In my investments that year (2020ish ) the value of it was worth my time?

Again I’m an idiot.


Isn’t value what others judge it as? Like my Silverado I put maybe 15 miles a month on.. to me might be worth $5000. If I put it for sale it may be of an $8000 value to a buyer
 

Klaus

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I will say that probably isn’t the answer you wanted

But I’m also a moron

That is as valid of answer as any. This describes how most approach stocks whether they admit it or not.

And "fundamental value" guys are as totally wrong all the time. Look up Jeremy Grantham. He sucks but somehow is considered a legend.
 

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