Current New Vehicle Market

13COBRA

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Market ended 135% up on Dec 31st of 2021, from January 1st of 2021.

This year, it's down 16.7% so far, and will probably rest at 20% on December 31st.

1668611520746.png




Also, future prediction... if Carvana has another earnings quarter like last quarter, they'll go into bankruptcy. When/if that happens, they will flood the market with used cars, and there will be some HUGE deals to be had.
 

Cobra Jet

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Market ended 135% up on Dec 31st of 2021, from January 1st of 2021.

This year, it's down 16.7% so far, and will probably rest at 20% on December 31st.

View attachment 1769523



Also, future prediction... if Carvana has another earnings quarter like last quarter, they'll go into bankruptcy. When/if that happens, they will flood the market with used cars, and there will be some HUGE deals to be had.

There was just another news article on CarBuzz that Carvana has (2) locations in PA that were suspended - one is noted as being indefinitely suspended, the other may be back operational at end of Dec. 2022....

Two Carvana Locations Suspended In Pennsylvania Two Carvana Locations Suspended In Pennsylvania
 

DriftwoodSVT

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Where I live in texas .. house prices and rent is going insane. Income is NOT rising

And I see the same cars just sitting and sitting and sitting

I guess I'm fortunate on that front. I've gotten significant raises for the past 16 years, including the past 2 years. My wife is still getting good pay raises as well.
 
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13COBRA

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There was just another news article on CarBuzz that Carvana has (2) locations in PA that were suspended - one is noted as being indefinitely suspended, the other may be back operational at end of Dec. 2022....

Two Carvana Locations Suspended In Pennsylvania Two Carvana Locations Suspended In Pennsylvania

They're having issues providing titles in a timely manner. They've had a total of 18 different locations suspended at least one in the last year.
 

AustinSN

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Floorplans are typically 1 point over prime rate.

I'm very thankful that my grandpa, then my dad were very diligent with finances, and passed those practices along.

We floorplan $500 on each vehicle (to stay under Ford's insurance), and own the rest through our own cash.
Ive chewed on this for a while, but it would seem there is quite a bit of potential lost earnings from the manufacturers who aren't getting floor plan as they move to an "order, then we build" style.
 

Weather Man

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Ive chewed on this for a while, but it would seem there is quite a bit of potential lost earnings from the manufacturers who aren't getting floor plan as they move to an "order, then we build" style.

No evidence by building dealer inventory that any manufacturer is using the order model. Traditional OEM's in flyover country may use that model with EV's since adoption rates are way less than on the coasts.
 

AustinSN

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No evidence by building dealer inventory that any manufacturer is using the order model. Traditional OEM's in flyover country may use that model with EV's since adoption rates are way less than on the coasts.
I thought a while ago Nick said they weren't going to allow him to order any stock that wasn't basically base models or fleet.
 

13COBRA

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Ive chewed on this for a while, but it would seem there is quite a bit of potential lost earnings from the manufacturers who aren't getting floor plan as they move to an "order, then we build" style.

Ford Motor Credit is a different company the Ford Motor Company.

Ford Credit has definitely been reaching out to offer different lines of credit, etc to increase their revenue streams.

No evidence by building dealer inventory that any manufacturer is using the order model. Traditional OEM's in flyover country may use that model with EV's since adoption rates are way less than on the coasts.

....that's not true. lol

Hate to break it to you, but you don't get the whole picture on your daily drives around town to count vehicles on lots.

Ford, for one, is planning to maintain 45-55% of the prior 2020 inventory levels. They took away supplemental allocation, on top of stock units, for retail use...and now all stock/retail units come out of the regular allocation; which will immediately and continuously affect the number of stock units ordered.

I thought a while ago Nick said they weren't going to allow him to order any stock that wasn't basically base models or fleet.

Kinda true, kinda not. They went to this configuration model, where on stock units, depending on region, you can only order certain packages, etc... for instance, the Central Region, can't order stock Mustangs with the Performance Package.
 

C2tuck

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…for instance, the Central Region, can't order stock Mustangs with the Performance Package.

What’s the reasoning or Fords thought process on this?

Is it like Texas edition blah, blah, blah only being available for sale in Texas? Just curious.
 

AustinSN

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Ford Motor Credit is a different company the Ford Motor Company.

Ford Credit has definitely been reaching out to offer different lines of credit, etc to increase their revenue streams.

That makes a lot of sense. I assumed floor plan was through the manufacturer. Do all companies do it this way?
 

13COBRA

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What’s the reasoning or Fords thought process on this?

Is it like Texas edition blah, blah, blah only being available for sale in Texas? Just curious.

Supposedly, they go off historical sales data. It's supposedly supposed to make it easier to stock what you sell.

Supposedly. lol
 

Weather Man

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....that's not true. lol

Hate to break it to you, but you don't get the whole picture on your daily drives around town to count vehicles on lots.

Ford, for one, is planning to maintain 45-55% of the prior 2020 inventory levels. They took away supplemental allocation, on top of stock units, for retail use...and now all stock/retail units come out of the regular allocation; which will immediately and continuously affect the number of stock units ordered.



Kinda true, kinda not. They went to this configuration model, where on stock units, depending on region, you can only order certain packages, etc... for instance, the Central Region, can't order stock Mustangs with the Performance Package.

We'll see what happens when the guys with the multi-acre lots tell Ford they will take everything Ford can send. Will Ford actually slow the production lines down? I suppose that depends on what the other OEM's do, but Ram certainly is trying to fill dealer lots to pre-pandemic levels. There is what Ford wants to do and then there is the reality I see looking at actual lots. It will be fun watching it unfold.

I know you have no love competing against the behemoth stocked lots precovid.
 

Weather Man

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Only weather man has become an expert on vehicle markets , crypto and more since retirement

Nick is a mom and pop. The dealer groups have size, and it matters, we'll see if Ford refuses to inventory their lots and slow down the production line. The ICE sitting on dealer lots is what is needed to pay for EV.
 

13COBRA

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We'll see what happens when the guys with the multi-acre lots tell Ford they will take everything Ford can send. Will Ford actually slow the production lines down? I suppose that depends on what the other OEM's do, but Ram certainly is trying to fill dealer lots to pre-pandemic levels. There is what Ford wants to do and then there is the reality I see looking at actual lots. It will be fun watching it unfold.

I know you have no love competing against the behemoth stocked lots precovid.

Slow the production lines? You're high and speaking out of your ass again. lol

No one is saying anyone will slow the production lines.

They can't speed them up past where they were building before...there's a deficit in inventory.... If I don't sell 1 car in the next 8 months, I won't have taken enough deliveries to get me back to pre-pandemic inventory levels.

I've spoken to guys at Galpin, Five Star, Woodhouse, etc. They're looking forward to having a 60-70% retail order count, compared to their 30-40% stock count. They will make MORE money by that system, than I will.

Nick is a mom and pop. The dealer groups have size, and it matters, we'll see if Ford refuses to inventory their lots and slow down the production line. The ICE sitting on dealer lots is what is needed to pay for EV.

See above.
 

Weather Man

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Slow the production lines? You're high and speaking out of your ass again. lol

No one is saying anyone will slow the production lines.

They can't speed them up past where they were building before...there's a deficit in inventory.... If I don't sell 1 car in the next 8 months, I won't have taken enough deliveries to get me back to pre-pandemic inventory levels.

I've spoken to guys at Galpin, Five Star, Woodhouse, etc. They're looking forward to having a 60-70% retail order count, compared to their 30-40% stock count. They will make MORE money by that system, than I will.



See above.

We'll see what combination of slowing demand and increased production is filling lots. There is some evidence people aren't taking ordered vehicles when they show up at a greater rate than before. Observing the current macroeconomic environment isn't speaking out of my ass. As Fat Boss noted, local Ford dealer had 155 F-150 sitting on the lot, that sounds healthy to me. But, it will shake out in the coming months.
 

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