Current New Vehicle Market

13COBRA

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We'll see what combination of slowing demand and increased production is filling lots. There is some evidence people aren't taking ordered vehicles when they show up at a greater rate than before. Observing the current macroeconomic environment isn't speaking out of my ass. As Fat Boss noted, local Ford dealer had 155 F-150 sitting on the lot, that sounds healthy to me. But, it will shake out in the coming months.

155 today, compared to what 4 years ago?

The current Ford in stock inventory, NATIONWIDE, is 37% of what it was on December 31, 2018.
 

Weather Man

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There aren't as many parts shortages...there aren't any factory closed....

At that point, it's just math.

No worries, it is an interesting real-time puzzle. Inventories nationwide are just starting to creep off the bottom, so rate of change in a couple of variables in the last month are making themselves felt. The Fed is trying to cool things off after all, I think that is becoming apparent.
 

13COBRA

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You'd think the dealer would know what they can sell, since they are the ones selling the stuff???

You'd sure think so. Especially since the manufacturer has 0 financial liability once it gets released from the gate at the plant, and the dealer assumes full financial responsibility.
 

Weather Man

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CarMax stock drives lower as Wedbush trims estimates

KMX -5.93%Nov. 16, 2022 4:08 PM ET1 Comment

Wedbush analyst Seth Basham dimmed his view of CarMax (NYSE:KMX) on Wednesday amid slowing sales trends and increasing loan delinquency.
According to Wedbush’s proprietary sales tracker, CarMax (KMX) is on track for “high teens” used unit comps for the third quarter. Additionally, the firm expects the portfolio-level 31+ day delinquency rate increased 41 bps sequentially, well above an 8 bps historical seasonal average decrease.
“Delinquencies in October 2021 that coincided with the CAF systems transition have continued to worsen, an indication of underlying credit deterioration; indeed, this transition was fully anniversaried this month yet delinquencies continue to climb higher,” Basham said. “When adjusting for extensions, delinquencies continue to rise and are above pre-pandemic levels,
portending higher losses ahead.”
 

SID297

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You'd sure think so. Especially since the manufacturer has 0 financial liability once it gets released from the gate at the plant, and the dealer assumes full financial responsibility.

I hope you're right about Carvana going under and taking used car prices with it. I'm looking to pick up a 2014 F-150 early next year.
 

13COBRA

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I hope you're right about Carvana going under and taking used car prices with it. I'm looking to pick up a 2014 F-150 early next year.

It'll be tough on a lot of people who have late models vehicles they're wanting to get rid of.
 

Lambeau

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Local dealership has multiple broncos that have been sitting for months…

White one is real nice.

100%. White Broncos are stunning. One at the local dealers.


Market ended 135% up on Dec 31st of 2021, from January 1st of 2021.

This year, it's down 16.7% so far, and will probably rest at 20% on December 31st.

View attachment 1769523



Also, future prediction... if Carvana has another earnings quarter like last quarter, they'll go into bankruptcy. When/if that happens, they will flood the market with used cars, and there will be some HUGE deals to be had.

Will they just liquidate the inventory online, take them to auction, or?
 

q6543

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Oh, I thought they were supposed to be delivering them by the summer 23 as MY 24s
Thanks.
 

MFE

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Ive chewed on this for a while, but it would seem there is quite a bit of potential lost earnings from the manufacturers who aren't getting floor plan as they move to an "order, then we build" style.
That's all lip service anyway. They want KanBan style manufacturing and it ain't gonna happen, the unions will want the factories running.
 

CompOrange04GT

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Pfft... how many lots do you drive by every day NICK??? HMMMM?


The fact that Weather is literally trying to claim to know more about the new vehicle market than a dealership owner blows my mind

Though he’s the same guy who has never bought crypto claiming to know more than people who have been mining it and using it for years
 

Weather Man

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The fact that Weather is literally trying to claim to know more about the new vehicle market than a dealership owner blows my mind

Though he’s the same guy who has never bought crypto claiming to know more than people who have been mining it and using it for years

You don't have to own a dealership to observe changes in the market.

Something like 80% of crypto owners are in the red. BTC down 82% since the peak in Nov 2021 = Winning.
 

CompOrange04GT

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You don't have to own a dealership to observe changes in the market.

Something like 80% of crypto owners are in the red. BTC down 82% since the peak in Nov 2021 = Winning.
Keep reading the internet.

You can’t trust crypto, and you know that people traded crypto in secret…. but you trust articles claiming they’ve spoken to every crypto trader… and you trust that all of them were honest about their profits and losses?

Jesus Christ you’re dense. Hell… ON THIS SITE.. almost all of us are still in the positive, but hey your articles say 80% is negative so you’re obviously right.
 

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