Death of the car as we know it by the year 2030.

[cbj5259]

As an auto enthusiast this scares the poo out of me. Basically the "experts" say that by 2030 the death spiral of the human driven, petrol powered car will be complete and that almost half the cars on the road will be autonomous electric transporters with numbers increasing every year thereafter.They predict the cars will last longer, be cheaper to operate and be much safer. 2030 is looked at as some kind of event horizon much as when the major switch from the horse and buggy to the automobile finally tilted. Basically the auto industry is going to have to do an about face or be wiped away. So basically all of our high horsepower cars will be relics.

https://reneweconomy.com.au/death-spiral-for-cars-by-2030-you-probably-wont-own-one-93626/

Sent from my SM-N920T using Tapatalk

 

[blk02edge]

I really really do not believe that. Maybe within certain city limits but no way will that happen in rural areas.

 

[KilledbyKenne]

I don't see it happening. Not in my lifetime anyway.

 

[cbj5259]

I really really do not believe that

Unfortunately I think it is inevitable...I just question the time frame. 2050 maybe, but 2030 seems a little ambitious. Electric vehicles are coming whether we like it or not. At the rate we are making technology leaps I have no doubt that a computer driven car will be light years safer than a human driven car at some point. I just hope that there is still a niche industry for fossil fuel vehicles so enthusiasts can keep their old cars going. I mean we haven't travelled by horse in well over a century, yet we still have stables and horse ownership so I'm sure some business venture will take over that area. I just don't want to see the everyday guy get priced out of "old car" ownership. It seems that horses are the toys of the wealthy and well off. I don't want to see petrol powered cars fall into that same rut but I have a feeling it eventually will.

Sent from my SM-N920T using Tapatalk

 

[cbj5259]

I don't see it happening. Not in my lifetime anyway.

Like I said I think 2030 is a tad bit ambitious but I think by 2050 it's a whole new ballgame. That's 33 years from now. Technology grows exponentially every year. Look back 33 years from today...thats 1984. Think about what cars looked like and what technology they had in them and then look at now. Other than the fact that they had engines, transmissions, four wheels and a steering wheel there isn't much else in common with a modern car. People then couldn't fathom radar/camera assisted stopping, lane departure warning, Bluetooth, navigation, etc. Yet this is all common tech in even the most entry level car nowadays.

Sent from my SM-N920T using Tapatalk

 

[AustinSN]

The insurance industry is gearing up for it. They are saying 60% of cars on the road by 2030 will be autonomous. I do agree with the OP that it's probably overly ambitious but it's going to happen.

We will have a better idea by 2025 when most of the big companies have had autonomous cars on the road for a few years.

 

[openaccount]

Lol at the 1984 comment vs today.

Back to the future came out in 1989. It missed by all accounts as to what 2015 would look like(26 years)

2030 and even 2050 will not be nearly the drastic change you are expecting. Especially if we are still doing all the same shit that requires a car to be used as we currently do.

 

[lastcall190]

Almost got the Cubs right though...

To actually contribute something, I see these articles pop up occasionally, and I seem to think that when the time comes where autonomous vehicles outnumber human driven, insurance and whatnot will put the manually driven cars on a higher level.

I also think that anytime these articles come up, they are thinking of heavily urbanized areas predominantly. Traffic patterns and human error seem far more prevalent when driving from Northern NJ to Long Island vs two towns in middle of PA.

 

[cbj5259]

Lol at the 1984 comment vs today.

Back to the future came out in 1989. It missed by all accounts as to what 2015 would look like(26 years)

2030 and even 2050 will not be nearly the drastic change you are expecting. Especially if we are still doing all the same shit that requires a car to be used as we currently do.

Yeah but I was comparing 1984 to what we actually have now and no one could have fathomed it then. Hell...we already have autonomous vehicles now. I don't think it's a big leap to say the technology that already exists will still be here in 33 years and be more refined.

Sent from my SM-N920T using Tapatalk

 

[verbal]

Unfortunately I think it is inevitable...I just question the time frame. 2050 maybe, but 2030 seems a little ambitious. Electric vehicles are coming whether we like it or not. At the rate we are making technology leaps I have no doubt that a computer driven car will be light years safer than a human driven car at some point. I just hope that there is still a niche industry for fossil fuel vehicles so enthusiasts can keep their old cars going. I mean we haven't travelled by horse in well over a century, yet we still have stables and horse ownership so I'm sure some business venture will take over that area. I just don't want to see the everyday guy get priced out of "old car" ownership. It seems that horses are the toys of the wealthy and well off. I don't want to see petrol powered cars fall into that same rut but I have a feeling it eventually will.

Sent from my SM-N920T using Tapatalk

I often wonder if the government will allow us to drive cars ourselves at all. Autonomous vehicles will be able to communicate with each other and things like traffic signals to make traffic flow more efficient and safe. What is going to happen when human drivers continually interrupt the autonomous vehicles from operating in the most efficient way?

I also think that this is going to happen a lot sooner than we think. A lot of this technology has seemed to come out of nowhere in the last few years and companies are jumping on board.

 

[cbj5259]

I often wonder if the government will allow us to drive cars ourselves at all. Autonomous vehicles will be able to communicate with each other and things like traffic signals to make traffic flow more efficient and safe. What is going to happen when human drivers continually interrupt the autonomous vehicles from operating in the most efficient way?

I also think that this is going to happen a lot sooner than we think. A lot of this technology has seemed to come out of nowhere in the last few years and companies are jumping on board.

I think you will see designated human driven automobile roadways that are set apart from the roadways used by autonomous vehicles in the interim. Eventually in 100 years there won't be a need for any human driven roadways and the only way humans will be able to operate such a car will be on a track or closed course.

Sent from my SM-N920T using Tapatalk

 

[DHG1078]

I mean we haven't travelled by horse in well over a century, yet we still have stables and horse ownership so I'm sure some business venture will take over that area.

This is the most ridiculous argument there is. Horses are an animal. They reproduce on their own. They are not regulated like automobiles. They do not require R&D costs, crash safety ratings, etc.

We already have fully autonomous Tesla's. Ford, and many others, have said they will have fully autonomous cars in the 2020-2022 range.

I don't think government will ban non-autonomous cars or petrol driven cars from the roads in the foreseeable future, but it will happen on its own slowly anyways as government imposes more and more regulations on cars. It will eventually be very difficult to buy a new gas powered car, or a non-autonomous vehicle, which will leave only the used car market. As cars age, we will see fewer and fewer of them.

 

[cbj5259]

This is the most ridiculous argument there is. Horses are an animal. They reproduce on their own. They are not regulated like automobiles. They do not require R&D costs, crash safety ratings, etc.

We already have fully autonomous Tesla's. Ford, and many others, have said they will have fully autonomous cars in the 2020-2022 range.

I don't think government will ban non-autonomous cars or petrol driven cars from the roads in the foreseeable future, but it will happen on its own slowly anyways as government imposes more and more regulations on cars. It will eventually be very difficult to buy a new gas powered car, or a non-autonomous vehicle, which will leave only the used car market. As cars age, we will see fewer and fewer of them.

I think you missed the point of what I was saying...Horses used to be a necessary means of travel over a century ago. They were the preferred method of travel. Once the automobile came along horses...as a means of everyday travel, became outdated and antiquated and the industries that supported travel by horse dried up and went away. It became a hobby of the rich and well to do. That's what I'm saying could happen with the petrol powered, human driven cars over the next century. They could become the play toys of the rich and the "everyday man" car enthusiast as we know today will get priced out of the hobby.

Sent from my SM-N920T using Tapatalk

 

[VerySneaky]

While Google and some others seem to be making headway in autonomous vehicles, I sincerely doubt 2030 will be a breakpoint in terms of collapse of the auto industry as we know it. Unless they have a system that is utterly and completely superior to a human driver, only the megacities will it be economically feasible, a la Minority Report. Humans love their own autonomy greater than the convenience of AI vehicles.

 

[KilledbyKenne]

I think you will see designated human driven automobile roadways that are set apart from the roadways used by autonomous vehicles in the interim. Eventually in 100 years there won't be a need for any human driven roadways and the only way humans will be able to operate such a car will be on a track or closed course.

Sent from my SM-N920T using Tapatalk

I wonder then how I will get my outdated play car to the closed course. Will the government be so kind as to provide me with an autonomous truck/trailer combo?

 

[cbj5259]

I wonder then how I will get my outdated play car to the closed course. Will the government be so kind as to provide me with an autonomous truck/trailer combo?

Probably not...same way people get their horses to horse shows. Rent or own an autonomous trailer.

Sent from my SM-N920T using Tapatalk

 

[RedVenom48]

All it will take is a highly skilled hack event to **** up everyones enthusiasm for autonomous cars.

Ill be laughing in my GT500 as it happens... from my driveway.

 

[nxhappy]

depends on government. eventually they will force us on electricity. I could see it happening within 40 or 50 years. 15 years.....no way.

 

[derklug]

A lot of this will hit the poor/middle class hard. If you outlaw non-autonomous vehicles, everyone will have to have a new car. The average age of cars now is 11.4 years, that makes a lot of 2018's still on the road in 2030. 11.4 average also means that it would be well into 2040 before the majority of cars were autonomous. I do expect that by 2050, driving cars will be a hobby enjoyed by the well to do, much like horse riding is today. Thankfully I will be dead before this comes to pass.

 

[cbj5259]

All it will take is a highly skilled hack event to **** up everyones enthusiasm for autonomous cars.

Ill be laughing in my GT500 as it happens... from my driveway.

You may be sitting in your driveway though because gas stations quickly dry up and close because they aren't being used anymore.

Sent from my SM-N920T using Tapatalk