Is a recession on the horizon or is this just a blip

Thanks for the tip, I'll tip you a small cap back, VOC. Been looking at it pretty hard, not in my portfolio yet.

 

You'll love Sedona. Hell, even Flagstaff, Prescott or Jerome area would be a beautiful place to live. Compared to what you're seeing cost wise its a ****ing bargain.

Best gun laws in the country and you have a wonderful climate in Sedona, AZ. It does snow, but its nothing like back East shit. More like a dusting.

 

They, the media, have been chatting about a recession for the past year and a half now or more.
I'm sure one is coming, but when is anyone's guess. I hope it's not half as bad as the 2008-2011 recession was. HORRIBLE!

 

Honestly, I think it's coming sooner than later.

Our business is directly tied to the housing market, Nationwide. We're projected down this year and very minimal, if at all, gains over the next 2-3 years. Housing plays a huge role in the overall economy and can be a decent barometer. I'm no expert though.

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Housing costs are out of control here in Texas. The cost of a house has gone up too much over the last 5 to 7 years.

 

Not in El Paso. Flat as ever


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LOL, too many Democrats have moved there from Cali.

E

 

Always cheaper in the barrio.

 

Dow almost right back to where it was last Tuesday before all the bond talk of recession.

Relax, this happens all the time....

E

PS Keep an eye on Germany and the UK. If they drop (confidence), I am looking Trump to make a China deal to protect US for a year.

 

Yeah, I agree with housing as being a HUGE indicator for the economy.
I see jobs piling up at work more then the previous month and we're still investing in equipment and just put on a second shift last month. (Questionable on how long the second shift lasts. We've never had a second shift at this shop and so far, it still seems that way, but business is picking up day by day, so who knows.)
Plus, people are still buying toys, (**ahem, me, ahem**), and the guys that have the new GT500 on order.
Let's keep it going. I wished that's how it worked. lol

 

I have a feeling it is going to happen but mostly cause everyone keeps saying it is so people are going to get scared and make it happen. People are going to stop spending and hold on to money to try and prepare for something that probably wouldn't happen if people would just shut up about it. But hey I'm no Economists so what do I know

 

I know around Central MN, if you are in the trades, you are instantly hired. They are having trouble replacing older guys who want to retire.

 

Pulte Homes is hiring Mexicans on temporary work visas and can't bring them in fast enough to fill the demands of Californians fleeing that failing shit hole. When you demonize trades in favor of dance theory degrees you end up hiring shit labor from other countries to fill the shortage

 

There is a shortage of skilled Trades workers in California as well, especially nor-cal, what with half of Santa Rosa burning down a couple of years back and the tens of thousands of housing units being built around the area the existing construction companies cant keep up and are backlogged something fierce, my brother is a Construction Engineer and his company is basically hiring anyone that can swing a hammer at this point.

And yes there are people cashing out and leaving, but there are just as many people moving here, if not more, for jobs around the area. A lot of people move out here for jobs in their early 20's then realize they will never be able to afford a house out here and move somewhere they can afford. I have actually been eyeing moving to Berlin since believe it or not COL is significantly less than here and my company has an existing office there I can work out of.

 

Either that or a $300b tax increase on consumers derp tariffs.

 

The evidence is showing that the Chinese are eating the current tariffs and companies are moving post haste out of China. Christmas gifts exempted this year, so no sympathy for companies that leave their shit hanging in the wind for next xmas.

 

If they are not impacting consumers, why is there a need for an exemption through xmas?

“First, the costs of US tariffs have fallen entirely on US businesses and households, with no clear reduction in the prices charged by Chinese exporters. Second, the effects of the tariffs have spilled over noticeably to the prices charged by US producers competing with tariff-affected goods.”

This chart from Goldman Sachs shows tariffs are raising prices for consumers and it could get worse

If you think tax cuts stimulate the economy then you have to agree that tax increases have the opposite effect, correct? I hate to break it to you but tariffs are a tax on consumers.

 

Very true