New Norm: Less Dealer Inventory

jvandy50

Well-Known Member
Established Member
Premium Member
Joined
Sep 22, 2015
Messages
2,268
Location
AR
soooo what happens when everyone runs out of money and people aren't buying cars like it's the last pack of TP?

i was planning on a doomsday deal for a trackhawk or TRX for 58k OTD and idt it's gonna happen now.

...the 22 f250 will be able to power the house you say??
 

JPD5801

Member
Established Member
Joined
Mar 23, 2006
Messages
545
Location
MD
So order the exact vehicle you want and wait vs. hitting the dealer lot and playing the price game for 3 hours.

Sounds like a win, actually.

Or, build the exact vehicle you want on the manufacturer’s site using your preferred dealer’s zip, and it’ll appear on the lot and you can go buy it.

That’s what happened to me. I spent close to 3 months researching and building cars on Ford’s site. Then, the car I really wanted appeared on my local dealer’s site as “factory ordered.” I went in and started the buying process before the transport hit the lot. It isn’t a guarantee, but if you plan ahead, it could shorten the wait.
 

13COBRA

Resident Ford Dealer
Established Member
Premium Member
Single Barrel Sirs
Joined
Jun 4, 2012
Messages
22,317
Location
Missouri
@13COBRA for some reason my local dealer is overflowing with Mustangs right now. They typically keep about a handful of GTs with a few ecos sprinkled in, but i counted at least 10 and 10 last night, the F150s are climbing up in numbers, but nothing like they used to. The big saler for them is the STX package.

If their inventory is growing, I guarantee their sales are down.

So in this 9-12 months you've noticed "A LOT" of people trade more often than they ever have? I'm not saying your bullshitting but I am genuinely curious how you've come to that conclusion.
If people are trading more often I would assume your used inventory is up ytd, therefore considering the hot market conditions your new and used sales must be up ytd. How much are they up on average monthly over last year?

Like I said in my original post I'm sure the increase in your average net per unit is welcomed and good for you but, it won't last. It's a flawed short term plan. The lumber industry tried it last year when a 2x4 went from $3 to $8. They got greedy and the big builders and suppliers told them to sit on it and their inventory grew until they had to dump it.

Ford could take their GT500 sales plan and make 100 F-150's a year and sell them for $100k a piece but they're going to start losing their discounts on glass, tires, etc. because RAM or <Insert competitor hungry for business> is going to fill the void. This practice has been tried countless times throughout history, and all the manufacturers swear to to the alter of profit but the beauty of capitalism always wins.

Well, in 2019 we traded for 51 vehicles (cars and trucks) that were purchased from us in 2018. We traded for 21 vehicles that were purchased in 2018 from another dealership. So 72 total.

Last year, we traded for 91 vehicles that we sold in 2019, and 43 that were sold by another dealership in 2019. So almost double.

My used inventory is most definitely not up, neither is new. My used sales was up about 21% last year, while new was down 1.5%. New was much more profitable than it had been in years past due to lower inventory holding costs.

I'm not even sure what your last couple of sentences is trying to point out...literally no one is saying to produce 100 F-150s.

soooo what happens when everyone runs out of money and people aren't buying cars like it's the last pack of TP?

i was planning on a doomsday deal for a trackhawk or TRX for 58k OTD and idt it's gonna happen now.

...the 22 f250 will be able to power the house you say??

Banks loan longer. Every five years, the average car loan lengthens by 6-12 months. It's depressing. In 2012 customers would scoff at financing for 72 months, hell, now that' the norm. There are people financing vehicles for 84, 96, and 108 months. INSANE.
 

5.0 Hatch

Well-Known Member
Established Member
Joined
Dec 21, 2005
Messages
1,152
Location
Gulf coast
Banks loan longer. Every five years, the average car loan lengthens by 6-12 months. It's depressing. In 2012 customers would scoff at financing for 72 months, hell, now that' the norm. There are people financing vehicles for 84, 96, and 108 months. INSANE.

Out of curiosity, what percent of customers pay cash? Also, what is the average monthly note you're seeing these days?
 

13COBRA

Resident Ford Dealer
Established Member
Premium Member
Single Barrel Sirs
Joined
Jun 4, 2012
Messages
22,317
Location
Missouri
Out of curiosity, what percent of customers pay cash? Also, what is the average monthly note you're seeing these days?

Hard to say for the industry as a whole for all of that. I guarantee there are more cash buyers at a Toyota store than a Ford store...just different clientele. As far as the notes go, for city areas where trucks aren't as popular they're probably significantly less than ours, since we majorly sell trucks.

In the last 12 months are cash deals are at 14%, and the average monthly note (excluding cash deals, since it would show $0 and skew the results) are $612 on new vehicles and $487 on pre-owned.
 

CobraBob

Authorized Vendor
Established Member
Premium Member
Single Barrel Sirs
Joined
Nov 17, 2002
Messages
105,349
Location
Cheshire, CT
Nick, if interest rates on loans were higher, would you expect to see more leases?
 

13COBRA

Resident Ford Dealer
Established Member
Premium Member
Single Barrel Sirs
Joined
Jun 4, 2012
Messages
22,317
Location
Missouri
Nick, if interest rates on loans were higher, would you expect to see more leases?

Yes and no. The lease money factors will go up as well, so it won't make that big of a difference. The determining factor between buying and leasing is the residual, and that's unaffected by interest rates.

I haven't bought anything off a lot since the late 1980's.
I also haven't had a car payment since the early 1990's,.............it's just the way I do business..

Cool story, bro.
 

sleek98

Well-Known Member
Established Member
Joined
Nov 19, 2012
Messages
2,168
Location
Kansas City, MO
In the last 12 months are cash deals are at 14%, and the average monthly note (excluding cash deals, since it would show $0 and skew the results) are $612 on new vehicles and $487 on pre-owned.

$612 for 72 or 84/96? That sounds super high, but its really only a 40k car.

edit: have you sold any Mach-e yet?
 

RedVenom48

Let's go Brandon!
Established Member
Joined
Sep 29, 2014
Messages
7,973
Location
Arizona
Hard to say for the industry as a whole for all of that. I guarantee there are more cash buyers at a Toyota store than a Ford store...just different clientele. As far as the notes go, for city areas where trucks aren't as popular they're probably significantly less than ours, since we majorly sell trucks.

In the last 12 months are cash deals are at 14%, and the average monthly note (excluding cash deals, since it would show $0 and skew the results) are $612 on new vehicles and $487 on pre-owned.
Wife and I built her Bronco on the website last night. After all was tallied, payment for a 72 month loan was over 800 a month. That was a base Bronco 4 door, v6 with hard top and Sasquatch. .... I felt bad because I could see the disappointment in her face. Total before tax, title and reg was nearly $48k... these things are not cheap.

She may need to be happy with a 2 door 4cyl Sasquatch to make a payment work. But we have the Excursion for the baby so a 2 door could work.
 
Last edited:

13COBRA

Resident Ford Dealer
Established Member
Premium Member
Single Barrel Sirs
Joined
Jun 4, 2012
Messages
22,317
Location
Missouri
$612 for 72 or 84/96? That sounds super high, but its really only a 40k car.

edit: have you sold any Mach-e yet?

$612 for an average term of 69.3 months.

Yes, delivered one already. I have one in stock but it's mandated to go into service loaner program until 4,000 miles or 120 days. I have two prospective prospects on it when it gets out of service.

White and I built her Bronco on the website last night. After all was tallied, payment for a 72 month loan was over 800 a month. That was a base Bronco 4 door, v6 with hard top and Sasquatch. .... I felt bad because I could see the disappointment in her face. Total before tax, title and reg was nearly $48k... these things are not cheap.

She may need to be happy with a 2 door 4cyl Sasquatch to make a payment work. But we have the Excursion for the baby so a 2 door could work.

Yep. I ordered a Wildtrak 2-door for a guy...had an MSRP of $60k.

@13COBRA Nick, you opened a can of worms my friend, tons of questions from everyone because of this post! lol

Always welcome though! I enjoy helping car enthusiasts get information that they normally wouldn't have a way of getting.
 

hoamskilet

Well-Known Member
Established Member
Joined
Mar 8, 2004
Messages
6,063
Location
Roscoe, IL
This all sounds like I'm gonna need to find a way to keep my truck rolling until it just can't anymore lol

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 

13COBRA

Resident Ford Dealer
Established Member
Premium Member
Single Barrel Sirs
Joined
Jun 4, 2012
Messages
22,317
Location
Missouri
This all sounds like I'm gonna need to find a way to keep my truck rolling until it just can't anymore lol

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

What are you driving now? Year, make, trim, miles?
 

13COBRA

Resident Ford Dealer
Established Member
Premium Member
Single Barrel Sirs
Joined
Jun 4, 2012
Messages
22,317
Location
Missouri
so do they cover the financing/floorplan/whatever until hits one of those numbers?

No, not directly haha

On some vehicles they pay $1,000 when you put them into loaner service, then $250 after 30 days in service, and $250 after 60 days in service.

On the Mach-Es, they pay $250 after 30, and $250 after 60. Nothing up front.
 

Weather Man

Persistance Is A Bitch
Established Member
Joined
May 18, 2012
Messages
25,764
Location
MN
Had my F-150 oil changed today and walked the lot. This dealer used to have all F-150 courtesy vehicles, now all converted to small SUV. Pickup inventory was crushed compared to normal.

No shock that people may hold onto what they have to wait for better selection. I think that reality is starting to hit home. Could be a rough couple of quarters for the car biz. Used car auctions may get crazy again as dealers fight for inventory.

Auto dealer stocks fall as part of broad auto sector decline
 

Rb0891

Well-Known Member
Established Member
Premium Member
Joined
Feb 9, 2020
Messages
3,897
Location
Indiana
No, not directly haha

On some vehicles they pay $1,000 when you put them into loaner service, then $250 after 30 days in service, and $250 after 60 days in service.

On the Mach-Es, they pay $250 after 30, and $250 after 60. Nothing up front.
What is this I have seen on the new financing option for the Mach E, a leaseback or something so the owner can get the tax credit and an incentive for using it?
 

13COBRA

Resident Ford Dealer
Established Member
Premium Member
Single Barrel Sirs
Joined
Jun 4, 2012
Messages
22,317
Location
Missouri
What is this I have seen on the new financing option for the Mach E, a leaseback or something so the owner can get the tax credit and an incentive for using it?

Do you have any more information on it? I haven't heard of that.
 

Users who are viewing this thread



Top