Real-Estate Bubble Popping?

Fat Boss

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In my department we get dozens of quality resumes, and interview at least 4 or 5 of them multiple times. Only once in 3 years here have I seen someone bail out without being told they're out of the running. Pay good money, get good candidates.
 

13COBRA

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In my department we get dozens of quality resumes, and interview at least 4 or 5 of them multiple times. Only once in 3 years here have I seen someone bail out without being told they're out of the running. Pay good money, get good candidates.

I mean... I've hired for positions that pay $200k+ and have the same issue.

If you're paying closer to that $650-750k range, I'd relocate to Comifornia.
 

Rb0891

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I mean... I've hired for positions that pay $200k+ and have the same issue.

If you're paying closer to that $650-750k range, I'd relocate to Comifornia.
Holy shit. I think I may have to look at getting back in to the regular work force.
 

Fat Boss

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I mean... I've hired for positions that pay $200k+ and have the same issue.

If you're paying closer to that $650-750k range, I'd relocate to Comifornia.

The positions in my department are all "Senior Staff" Technical Program/Project Managers. Base pay is about 200. The target for the bonus plan is 20%, but last year was a good year at about 30%. If you're a good employee you get about $40k in stock, and if the stock goes up the sky's the limit. New hires get a nice chunk of stock, I think somewhere around $80k spread over three years. So, no. The positions are not in the $700k range. Two levels up from me, a Sr Director of Engineering would probably have a comp package in that range.

*I work in Silicon Valley and it's an absolute gold rush here. It has been since I was born here just over 50 years ago, and it will be for the next 50 years. There's a yuge amount of talent that comes here from all over the world for the opportunities. That's playing a big part in getting a lot of resumes when we hire.

If you're offering $200k and people aren't biting, either dumb it down into two $100k jobs or pay more. Is that what you end up doing?
 

L8APEX

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You can only break down an entry level role so much.

One of the companies I work for had to change payment models from a nice hourly wage with healthy commissions and benefits to a new higher hourly rate and no commision before benefits to new hires, as you are ignored if you offer less than other retail or fast food openly advertises $18-20 in Colorado, though this position is a much easier job, as pace is slower as it's a few customers an hour you spend 5-10mis with vs 2. And the a bit stocking. Basically a box, maybe 4 of product a time or two a week as it comes in UPS & Fedex.

Even only offering at least $5 above the nearly $16 minimum wage in Colorado for entry level positions, (thanks to Denver) to be a "warm body" where essentially you run a register and just discourage people from picking up items and walking out the door without paying between sitting and playing on your phone all day requires often paying more than double what we pay in Kansas for better talent or higher roles, but cost of living here is not insane.

Any higher, more specialized positions that filling has been impossible have finally just been dismantled and the main functions divided up between those of us with "skin" in the sake of the company and added to our existing duties. But should result in more stability/security as the economy continues to stall.

If we are supposed to be a service based society now, with no one providing service it's like being an industrial society that makes nothing. I cannot see how this jenga tower stands much longer.
 
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Weather Man

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On a Y/Y basis, housing contract signings dropped 20%.

Pending home sales drop more than expected in June as mortgage rates rise​

Jul. 27, 2022 10:00 AM ETFMCCBy: Liz Kiesche, SA News Editor21 Comments

June Pending Home Sales: -8.6% M/M to 91.0 vs. -1.0% consensus and +0.4% prior (revised from +0.7%).
Pending sales declined in all four major regions, with the West showing the biggest monthly drop.
On a Y/Y basis, contract signings dropped 20%.
"Contract signings to buy a home will keep tumbling down as long as mortgage rates keep climbing, as has happened this year to date," said National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. NAR's latest projection expects home sales to fall 13% this year.
"With mortgage rates expected to stabilize near 6% and steady job creation, home sales should start to rise by early 2023," Yun said.
The Northeast Pending Home Sales Index ("PHSI") fell 6.7% M/M to 80.9, the Midwest PHSI dropped 3.8% to 93.7, the South PHSI slid by 8.9% to 108.3, and the West PHSI sank 15.90% to 68.7.
The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage stood at 5.70% at the end of June, down from 5.81% in the prior week but up from 2.98% at the same time a year ago, according to Freddie Mac (OTCQB:FMCC).
 

rborden

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Meh. This sounds like what the TSP guru with 80k followers suggest. Had everyone sit an funds that follow the Dow and S&P and majority are down 20% right now.

That’s fine and sure, following the likely price retrace we’ll have, home/stock prices will likely come back to where they are now eventually.

For those that didn’t buy during this surge, they have equity, for now.

For those that just bought in the last 6-12 months, ouch. Hopefully they sold another property for a huge gain to fund their purchase.

Also of note, the price increases have not occurred at the same time or rate nationally.

I sold my SoCal home in 12/20 after a 20% bump. Prices have hardly changed at all since then. Still sold it for less than I paid in 2005.

The price jump in W TX and S TX had barely started then. I was under contract to sell at 269k in 5/21. Deal was a mess and I cancelled it. Sold at 365k 12/21. This particular unit was valued around 315k in 2013. I paid 229k in late 19’. Not a distressed sale. 60% profit in 2 yrs. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see that particular unit drop down to the low 3s again.

My primary residence in TX is up about 50% as well.

The discrepancy was/is strange. I suppose this is the migration Dave mentioned. Shouldn’t really cross directly into vacation properties though.


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When it comes to mutual funds investing you have to look at the 80 year history (long term). Cant look at a few years.

This is what Dave means when you get hurt if you get off. The long term shows these rebound quickly.
 

2011 gtcs

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I feel bad for my neighbor, he listened his house at 600k back in May, he's lowered it now to 535k with still no luck on selling it. It's a nice house, but AZ is slowing down. Hopefully he'll eventually sell it.
 

MG0h3

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I feel bad for my neighbor, he listened his house at 600k back in May, he's lowered it now to 535k with still no luck on selling it. It's a nice house, but AZ is slowing down. Hopefully he'll eventually sell it.

That sucks. Unless he was just doing it for profit and he’s not in a jam now.

I sold a little early, but I also wanted out. Good riddance from that property.


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NateDogg

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I mean... I've hired for positions that pay $200k+ and have the same issue.

If you're paying closer to that $650-750k range, I'd relocate to Comifornia.
My office has had a position posted for almost 2 years without any quality candidates. We've had 2 come through that left before they made it through training.

Around 100-120k base with potential of 160k-200k with the OT.

Its insanity how bad the talent pool is.
 

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