Solar??

[NightRide]

Any of you guys had a 12-13kw system installed recently? Would like to do one this year or the next before the rebate credits go away. Been getting quotes in the 45-60k range which is way higher then what I've been reading about online. Is there something I'm missing or that's the average now. Any input is greatly appreciated.

 

[sleek98]

Not recently, ours was installed in 2018. We paid 2.93 a watt. Which was 35k for 11.94kw. We were able to do a 2 simple string inverters with 4 strings total. Our rear roofs are south facing. We got the 30% federal tax credit as well as the local power company gave us a 5,900 check as well for their rebates. So all in we are around 18.5k.

Break your quotes out on a per watt basis to get the best comparison.

 

[NightRide]

Well if I'm doing the math right the high end is 2.97 a watt. Lower quote is about 2.34 a watt. Your system is a little older they use an inverter on each panel now instead of the string. Which is supposed to be more efficient.

 

[sleek98]

They had micro inverters as well when we did our system. with zero shade issues on our house it wasn't worth spending the extra money for us, 25' in the air with no trees for 100 feet in any direction. They are are more efficient if you have ANY shade, as the shade only effects that one panel output, where as on my string it hurts the entire strings (10-11 panels) output not just the one panel.

I would shoot for under 2.40-2.50 a watt if possible, mainly due to the fed tax credit dropping for 2022 and even farther in 2023. Depending on your local utility rates it might take too long to payback to be worth it if you get too far over 2 bucks net. At least for me it would have, I ended up at 1.55 a watt after all rebates and it will be close to 9-10 year payback.

 

[9397SVTs]

We got a 13Kw system, with mini inverters, installed about 2 years ago.

I believe it was around $45-46K. We got about $17.5K in Fed tax credit. No rebate from power company.

I'm sure prices vary by location. When shopping companies, pay attention to the brand and model of panel being used. Do your research on panels and make sure you are getting what you pay for.

Warranties will likely be comparable, but quality varies.

 

[Black02GT]

They had micro inverters as well when we did our system. with zero shade issues on our house it wasn't worth spending the extra money for us, 25' in the air with no trees for 100 feet in any direction. They are are more efficient if you have ANY shade, as the shade only effects that one panel output, where as on my string it hurts the entire strings (10-11 panels) output not just the one panel.

I would shoot for under 2.40-2.50 a watt if possible, mainly due to the fed tax credit dropping for 2022 and even farther in 2023. Depending on your local utility rates it might take too long to payback to be worth it if you get too far over 2 bucks net. At least for me it would have, I ended up at 1.55 a watt after all rebates and it will be close to 9-10 year payback.

2018 didn't have rapid shutdown requirements at module level in most states. Now micros are the better play pretty much all around.

Also yes, solar is getting hit real hard right now on availability and material costs.

 

[NightRide]

Would you guys say now is a bad time to buy like the new car and housing market is priced at. Also the guys with solar has it zeroed out your electric bill completely?

 

[Black02GT]

Materials have went up but incentives moving forward will only go down plus the trend in changes to net metering. Again I'm not familiar with NM.

Any company worth your time will pull your previous years usage, give you a production estimate (generally 110% usage cause for some reason everyone uses more once they get it), come to your house, check the condition of your existing roofing, structure, existing service, etc at no fee.

Solar isn't a scam but a lot of scammers in solar if you catch my drift. Many companies that are "zero cost" online guys are purely sales and outsource installation. If you can, find a reputable local company that's the whole package.

 

[Stangra]

They had micro inverters as well when we did our system. with zero shade issues on our house it wasn't worth spending the extra money for us, 25' in the air with no trees for 100 feet in any direction. They are are more efficient if you have ANY shade, as the shade only effects that one panel output, where as on my string it hurts the entire strings (10-11 panels) output not just the one panel.

If you plan on living there for a significant period of time the micro inverter systems provide more reliability (less impactful failure mode) as the system gets older, components can be replaced individually as needed, and they offer expandability without the need to buy/install a larger inverter. If you ever want to convert more utilities to electric from another source later, or you buy an EV this could be handy. Better resale attraction too.

...Also the guys with solar has it zeroed out your electric bill completely?

My system produces as much electricity as I consume but there's still a monthly charge for being connected to the grid, so not 'zeroed out completely'

 

[sleek98]

Would you guys say now is a bad time to buy like the new car and housing market is priced at. Also the guys with solar has it zeroed out your electric bill completely?

Our bill over the last 4 years has ranged from 38 we owed (cold winter running the electric heaters in the detached garage) them to them owing us 8 (sunny spring month) which carried over as a credit to the next month.

Our bill has a 11.57 customer charge that can be offset by over production. Normally we are in the 7-12 range for a bill.

I agree with the above. There are scams out there, mainly leasing solar from what I have seen.

What is your kWh charge from the power company? Do they have a higher rate for summer vs winter?

 

[cobracide]

Any of you guys had a 12-13kw system installed recently? Would like to do one this year or the next before the rebate credits go away. Been getting quotes in the 45-60k range which is way higher then what I've been reading about online. Is there something I'm missing or that's the average now. Any input is greatly appreciated.

So going with the low figure of $45k - if you are paying $200 a month for your electric.. it will take you 18.75 years to get your money back. 45000 / (200 * 12) = 18.75. If you are taking a loan out for this, the number will look worse.

BTW - panel lifetime is typically 25 years. So say you are at zero cost per month billing with solar. It's now 18 years and nine months later and your solar is finally paid off. Six years and three months of free and clear electricity.

$200 * 75 months = $15000 profit over 25 years.
That's $600 a year over 25 years with no loan and paid full up front.

Annualized ROI

6.06%​

The annual sp500 return from 1957 through 2021 is 10.67%
So put your money in the stock market instead.

This is the reason I am not paying off my mortgage that's at 3.5% and investing instead,

 

[NightRide]

Thanks for the input guys, PNM has a 8 dollar connection fee regardless. Not sure the charge difference between summer/winter. My bill on average is about 260 a month much cheaper in winter then much higher in summer. That's an interesting breakdown cobracide. The only thing your not factoring is the electric bill over time isn't remaining the same at the same rate per usage. It's going up and up every few years like a giant snowball. That has me leaning more towards doing it but I only know a handful of guys personally that have done it and none recently.

 

[9397SVTs]

I haven't had a bill since getting mine.

 

[JPKII]

Until on-site energy storage solutions becomes safe, mainsteam, reasonabe cost, and I can go for extended periods of time without a utility connection, I'll hold off on solar. Doing it for finicial reasons is a stretch. Especially once these systems get some years on them.

I've watched a house in our subdivision swap panels several times now since install. I don't know anything about their install; so I am making an assumption. But I have seen their panels off and back on again several times.

 

[black92]

Materials have went up but incentives moving forward will only go down plus the trend in changes to net metering. Again I'm not familiar with NM.

Any company worth your time will pull your previous years usage, give you a production estimate (generally 110% usage cause for some reason everyone uses more once they get it), come to your house, check the condition of your existing roofing, structure, existing service, etc at no fee.

Solar isn't a scam but a lot of scammers in solar if you catch my drift. Many companies that are "zero cost" online guys are purely sales and outsource installation. If you can, find a reputable local company that's the whole package.

Actually had a company stop by yesterday saying just that. They'd pull my previous years data to compare and break down how the solar system would pay for itself. My issue is, I most likely will move before I break even on the investment.

 

[Stanley]

Until on-site energy storage solutions becomes safe, mainsteam, reasonabe cost, and I can go for extended periods of time without a utility connection, I'll hold off on solar. Doing it for finicial reasons is a stretch. Especially once these systems get some years on them.

I've watched a house in our subdivision swap panels several times now since install. I don't know anything about their install; so I am making an assumption. But I have seen their panels off and back on again several times.

This is what I'm waiting on as well. In 10-15 years when I build my retirement house I'd like it to be off grid if possible.

 

[sleek98]

So going with the low figure of $45k - if you are paying $200 a month for your electric.. it will take you 18.75 years to get your money back. 45000 / (200 * 12) = 18.75. If you are taking a loan out for this, the number will look worse.

BTW - panel lifetime is typically 25 years. So say you are at zero cost per month billing with solar. It's now 18 years and nine months later and your solar is finally paid off. Six years and three months of free and clear electricity.

$200 * 75 months = $15000 profit over 25 years.
That's $600 a year over 25 years with no loan and paid full up front.

Annualized ROI

6.06%​

The annual sp500 return from 1957 through 2021 is 10.67%
So put your money in the stock market instead.

This is the reason I am not paying off my mortgage that's at 3.5% and investing instead,

Math is a little fuzzy here. 45k system will cost a net of 33,300 after the federal tax credit. A 13kw system should clear more than just 200 a month bill depending on rates. That would be a 450+ a month bill in CA with their 30-35 cent a KWH rates.

But using your rate of 200 a month the federal tax credit lowers your break even 13.8 years. If your using a 300 a month bill your break even is now 9.25 years. That assumes the same rate of electricity over the entire break even. I believe we have had a rate hike once in the last 4 years that I have owned our system.

Solar is not for everyone, if your local rates are sub 12-13 cents a KWH I wouldnt do it as the break even is too long. If you have 20+ cent a KWH its a no brainer to do. And the only way it makes sense is to do it with cash, once you add in interest it really doesnt make much sense.

 

[NightRide]

Well from what I see on my bill it's about 19-20 cents in winter now in tier one. It goes up to tier 2 and 3 if you use more like you have to in summer then the KWH rates raise up significantly. Also NM offers another 10% state credit to factor into the math. You guys seem to be more knowledgeable on getting to the break even point. This is also our forever house so to speak.

 

[sleek98]

What is your average bill total?

The 45k system will cost you 28k out of pocket assuming you make enough to have use all of the tax credits. The federal one is not refundable. The extra 10% helps shave off a couple years.

 

[NightRide]

Low 100s in winter and mid 400s in summer. I called pnm to see what a budget plan would be to pay a fixed rate every month. Just did this to compare to what solar payments would be. They said to average it would be 255-260 a month. In theory if my solar payment is cheaper then my electric bill over 20 years. Then after that I have only the 8 dollar payment doesn't that save me money the entire time or am i missing something.