SVTP stock pick thread.

Weather Man

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Man, straight up **** these last couple weeks in the market…stock and crypto

I think people are looking at the various new state and federal taxes that may come into play for 2022 and are taking some winnings off the table putting some selling pressure on the markets.
 

cobracide

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I think people are looking at the various new state and federal taxes that may come into play for 2022 and are taking some winnings off the table putting some selling pressure on the markets.
Omi fears still in play as is the Fed meeting and results tomorrow. Taxes come every year but Dec is usually up.
 

Weather Man

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CompOrange04GT

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Weather Man

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A bill is not enough to shake the markets like this. Watch after the fed meeting and everything rises. Uncertainty moves markets. Not a D bill that’s not even passed.

I think the uncertainty associated with a bill that has tax provisions that change daily as the negotiate it has uncertainty aplenty. But I do agree plenty of other factors making the market skittish.
 

q6543

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Dollar looks like it will run out of steam by next year.

Crazy part is they have everyone whipped up into an inflation frenzy, and the truth is we need to print A TRUCKLOAD of more dollars to knock this back.

This tightening cycle is gonna be very brief... maybe they shoot for 75 bps and hold... I don't know if we could breach 2.5% without creating global havoc.
Bond market is capping us out around <2% still.

I can see a scenario where we're at 1.5-1.75 base with an inflation rate of 3% plus... and they're trying to manage negative -1 to -1-5% real rates.
 

Weather Man

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Dollar looks like it will run out of steam by next year.

Crazy part is they have everyone whipped up into an inflation frenzy, and the truth is we need to print A TRUCKLOAD of more dollars to knock this back.

This tightening cycle is gonna be very brief... maybe they shoot for 75 bps and hold... I don't know if we could breach 2.5% without creating global havoc.
Bond market is capping us out around <2% still.

I can see a scenario where we're at 1.5-1.75 base with an inflation rate of 3% plus... and they're trying to manage negative -1 to -1-5% real rates.

They just printed 40% of dollars printed in last 2 years. The Fed waited too long to tighten and government did WAY too much stimulus with more on the way. You are wrong beyond measure. The supply chains are still jug ****ed, so absolutely no relief of scarcity much less getting back to normal. The number of ships stacked waiting to be unloaded is INCREASING, not decreasing. Oh, and there may be a DEF fluid shortage because of Chinese stupidity...imagine thousands of big rigs parked and not moving freight on top of what is already going on.
 

cobracide

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Once the supply chain issues are fixed, inflation goes down and the fed quits raising. Probably within a year or so.

No chicken little - the sky is not falling. You just have to pay more if you want it now.
 

q6543

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Weatherman... I'd love to know what's your top holdings?

Are you shorting treasuries or something??
 

Weather Man

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Weatherman... I'd love to know what's your top holdings?

Are you shorting treasuries or something??

Shorting is for younger guys. I just know that every single thing that goes into the family business costs more. The labor shortage in all the trades and construction has been bad for years and getting worse. Wage inflation isn't going away and Biden admin seems determined to make it much worse.

EDIT: All the holdings in my liquid portfolio are around 2-3% and all my buckets are equal weighted with the exception of utilities, which is overweight.
 
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