Thoughts on Real Estate- bubble burst or not?

Cobra1776

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I’m debating selling my home and sitting on the cash. I have approx 165k in equity after realtor fees . Just not sure how long this real estate run will last, anyone with a serious experience have anything to add? I know the saying “ My kingdom for a crystal ball” comes to mind hahaha.

I like my home and the neighborhood but Really want a little more land ( +1 acre) Housing here has gotten crazy. I bought my home for 320k a year ago and they are now selling my exact floor plan for 482k! anyway just wanted some opinions. Thanks
 

Cobra1776

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Yeah, that’s what my buddy said as well. Just thinking how much would I lose out in if it bursts- is my dilemma. Thanks for the reply.
 

365 Saleen

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Real Estate is one of the best assets to have. DO NOT sell unless you have something else to buy.
If the market tanks, and then the dollar tanks, you are screwed. If the dollar does not tank, then it will be a buyers market. But why take the chance.
My wife works in Real Estate, and she is amazed at what is going on. It is unsustainable.
 

MG0h3

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Well I went through the 08’ bust after buying two homes in SoCal in 04’ and 05’.

I could have sold them both in 06/07 and made about 75k.

Instead I got stuck upside down 50% for a decade.

If I had somewhere to go and didn’t have 3 cars and garage full of tools and equipment, I would sell my primary residence.

My condo is under contract right now. Paid 229 11/29. Pending at 360k right now.


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q6543

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You're gonna try to time the crash of a 35 Trillion dollar market?

Good luck.. it's more likely that you're current house appreciates to 600k within the next decade than a "bubble bursts"
 

Deceptive

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There is no right or wrong answer.

I think it is going to be interesting and make cause issues in the market of reports are true of the DOJ actually going after Hedge Funds for their practices and if the reports of the Chinese Paper in Evergrande to prop up their shit practices are true.

But it is all a gamble to be honest.

Tomorrow your equity could be wiped out. You could be up another $10k by the end of the month.

You want to let it ride on Red or Black?


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365 Saleen

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You're gonna try to time the crash of a 35 Trillion dollar market?

Good luck.. it's more likely that you're current house appreciates to 600k within the next decade than a "bubble bursts"
If his house is going to be worth $600K then gas will be $15 per gallon, a loaf of bread $5.
It is meaningless.
If the dollar is worthless then it does not matter what the house is worth.
 

Blk04L

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I find it hard to believe a republican or Democrat in the WH would ever let 2008 repeat itself. We'll print trillions more to bail out the banks to not repeat that. Imo

A correction is one thing. A burst is something I can't see, for now anyways.

If a huge global event occurs where China and the euro markets get hit hard then anyone's guess
 
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MG0h3

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I find it hard to believe a republican or Democrat in the WH would ever let 2008 repeat itself. We'll print trillions more to bail out the banks to not repeat that. Imo

A correction is one thing. A burst is something I can't see, for now anyways.

If a huge global event occurs where China and the euro markets get hit hard then anyone's guess

Well the potential pullback will be for different reasons.

There are a lot of cash buyers right now.

Eventually that money will be reinvested and demand will slow in that area.


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My94GT

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I don’t see this market slowing down while supply chains are a mess. My assumption is another 2-3 years before it tapers off but I don’t expect to see a collapse.

I would only sell if you have a long term solution to stay in that isn’t a rental because you could be spending money for a few years while all this adjusts.
 

quad

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I’m debating selling my home and sitting on the cash. I have approx 165k in equity after realtor fees . Just not sure how long this real estate run will last, anyone with a serious experience have anything to add? I know the saying “ My kingdom for a crystal ball” comes to mind hahaha.

I like my home and the neighborhood but Really want a little more land ( +1 acre) Housing here has gotten crazy. I bought my home for 320k a year ago and they are now selling my exact floor plan for 482k! anyway just wanted some opinions. Thanks
The problem is buying a new home will cost just as much. And if you sell now before getting a second home your money will devalue. I doubt the printing presses will stop but we'll see.

Holding cash is a losing situation when cash is trash. I am surprised Warren Buffet is siting on so much cash. He cashed out a significant amount last year apparently and all that money has not been working for him. Maybe he thinks the market is going to have a huge correction and he can reenter at a lower price? He did lose out on a lot of potential gains and his cash holdings have lost value since last year.

 

quad

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cobracide

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Supply is low. Builders are having a real hard time sourcing supplies, plus inflation and labor will keep prices high. I don't see housing catching up with demand for a while. Interest rates are still super low and even though rate increases are coming, it's not enough to stomp out demand or high pricing.

M1, M2 and then M3 (money supply) used to be indicators of inflation. This has transitioned to the Fed interest rates being more in control of inflation. Even though M1,2,3 are crazy high - inflation is still semi-under control. As the Fed transitions out of QE (which it already has) to raising interest rates, this should bring down inflation. The inflation now is totally driven by a "lack of supply" and wage increases that will level off eventually. Probably within a year or two max.
 
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rborden

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Demand is high. Supply is low. If you can complete the transaction on both ends within 6-9 months, I’d do it.

You can sell your home and rent a place until it’s time to close, but I’d have it written into your contract that the builder needs to stay on schedule.

The good thing about the housing economy right now is its being backed by large down payments and no subsidizing of sub-primes like there was in 2007-2009. There’s a lot of stability and the housing economy is very strong.

Take advantage while the market is hot.



If you hold the house for 2 years you won't pay taxes. If you sell now you will pay capital gains.

If you buy another primary residence within 2 years I believe capital gains doesn’t apply.
 

Blkkbgt

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If you sell and wait on another 2008 style crash you're going to in a worse situation 2-3 years down the line IMOP.

Taking out all the economic stuff that others have posted I don't seen another crash happening for one major reason that I am seeing in my area right now.

People are paying for houses in cash! My wife and I just lost out on a house that literally checked every box because of a cash offer. We have also received 2 letters from people wanting to buy our house for cash with one willing to waive inspections and 3 month rent back.

Our house is estimated at about 550k right now. The house we lost out on went for 600k, again cash!

What I am saying is there is no mortgage for people to default on if the economy tanks.

Sure house values would dip if the economy tanks but I doubt we'll ever see rock bottom prices again.

Again this all just my opinion as I am no economist nor due I fully understand the housing market or its trends. I am simply looking at it from what I believe to be a logical point of view.
 

Stanger00

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Like most of the others said. Buy another property before you sell your home. It’s better to just reinvest your cash into another real estate asset. Your cash will just lose value if you let it sit in your bank account.

I’m selling my home. We are in a place where the schools that are a 2 minute walk from my 5 year old home still rank very low 3-4 and haven’t improved since we moved here. My son will be kindergarten age next year.

It was either buck up for private Christian school or move to a new area.

We decided to move and put our equity into another brand new build where schools are 8-10.

The new home is about $1k more a month but cheaper than private school tuition. I have 2 kids 3.5 year old and 1.5 year old.

I wish I could leave CA!
 

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