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SVTPerformance's Chain of Restaurants
Road Side Pub
Current New Vehicle Market
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<blockquote data-quote="13COBRA" data-source="post: 16768079" data-attributes="member: 138337"><p>Gut feeling mixed with industry information...</p><p></p><p>I think we'll start seeing the used market on $50k+ vehicles slow down in the next 4 months. It won't drop back to pre-pandemic levels, but it will drop from the highs we've been seeing now.</p><p></p><p>Next, the new vehicle sales will continue to stumble with supply chain issues. Manufacturers will be forced to increase incentives to order vehicles (Ford is already giving away $1,000) to keep people ordering and sustaining the wait times.</p><p></p><p>At some point the manufacturers will decide they won't incentivize the customers enough, then customers will slow down the ordering...giving the manufacturers the ability to build stock vehicles.</p><p></p><p>Customers, will then jolt the market, because now with stock units being built, there won't be astronomical waits. So for a 6-8 month period of the pendulum swinging in that direction, it will bump sales velocity again.</p><p></p><p>After the initial bump, it will start to normalize back to pre-pandemic ways. Dealers will NEVER stock the cars you saw on lots in Q4 of 2019, ever. Manufacturers and dealers both agree on that. </p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>I'm not sure when you sold...but even in the last 10 years the industry has completely changed, in a good way. There are still slime ball dealers, but nothing like there used to be.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="13COBRA, post: 16768079, member: 138337"] Gut feeling mixed with industry information... I think we'll start seeing the used market on $50k+ vehicles slow down in the next 4 months. It won't drop back to pre-pandemic levels, but it will drop from the highs we've been seeing now. Next, the new vehicle sales will continue to stumble with supply chain issues. Manufacturers will be forced to increase incentives to order vehicles (Ford is already giving away $1,000) to keep people ordering and sustaining the wait times. At some point the manufacturers will decide they won't incentivize the customers enough, then customers will slow down the ordering...giving the manufacturers the ability to build stock vehicles. Customers, will then jolt the market, because now with stock units being built, there won't be astronomical waits. So for a 6-8 month period of the pendulum swinging in that direction, it will bump sales velocity again. After the initial bump, it will start to normalize back to pre-pandemic ways. Dealers will NEVER stock the cars you saw on lots in Q4 of 2019, ever. Manufacturers and dealers both agree on that. I'm not sure when you sold...but even in the last 10 years the industry has completely changed, in a good way. There are still slime ball dealers, but nothing like there used to be. [/QUOTE]
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SVTPerformance's Chain of Restaurants
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Current New Vehicle Market
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