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SVTPerformance's Chain of Restaurants
Road Side Pub
SVTP stock pick thread.
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<blockquote data-quote="Weather Man" data-source="post: 16724820" data-attributes="member: 137766"><p><h3>Core PCE rises 4.9%, highest since '83; Personal income up 0.3%, spending off 0.6%</h3><p>Jan. 28, 2022 8:30 AM ET<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/user/1108356/profile?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cbutton%3Aauthor_name%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews" target="_blank">By: Gaurav Batavia</a>, SA News Editor<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/3793028-personal-income-and-outlays#comments" target="_blank">15 Comments</a></p><p></p><p><img src="https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/174672992/image_174672992.jpg?io=getty-c-w750" alt="Small Shrinking Currency Dollar in Inflation on White Background" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></p><p>YinYang/E+ via Getty Images</p><p></p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">December Personal <a href="https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income" target="_blank">Income and Outlays</a>: Income <strong>+0.3%</strong> M/M vs. +0.5% consensus and +0.5% prior (revised). The increase in personal income in December primarily reflected an increase in compensation that was partly offset by a decrease in proprietors' income.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">The Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, hit the highest annual rate since 1983.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Consumer spending:<strong> -0.6%</strong> M/M vs. -0.5% consensus and +0.4% prior (revised).</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">PCE Price Index: <strong>+0.4%</strong> M/M vs. +0.4% consensus and +0.6% prior (unrevised).</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">On Y/Y basis, PCE Price Index <strong>+5.8%</strong> vs. +5.8% consensus and +5.7% in November (unrevised).</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Core PCE Price Index: <strong>+0.5% </strong>M/M vs. +0.5% consensus and +0.5% prior (unrevised).</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Rises <strong>+4.9%</strong> Y/Y vs. 4.8% consensus and +4.7% in November. (unrevised)</li> </ul><p></p><p></p><p></p><h3><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/3793035-bofa-calls-for-seven-fed-rate-hikes-in-2022?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Amarket-news%7Csection_asset%3Amain" target="_blank">BofA calls for seven Fed rate hikes in 2022</a></h3><p><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TBT" target="_blank">TBT -3.54%</a>Jan. 28, 2022 8:35 AM ET<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/3793035-bofa-calls-for-seven-fed-rate-hikes-in-2022?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Amarket-news%7Csection_asset%3Amain#scroll_comments" target="_blank">28 Comments</a></p><p>The fed funds rate will end the year at 1.75% to 2%, with the reduction of the balance sheet starting in May, according to BofA Securities.</p><p>"Following the continued hawkish pivot at the January FOMC meeting, we expect the Fed to start tightening at the March 2022 meeting, raising rates by 25bp at every remaining meeting this year for a total of seven hikes, and in every quarter of 2023 for a total of four hikes," BofA economists led by Ethan S. Harris write in a note today. "The terminal rate of 2.75-3.00% will be reached in December 2023."</p><p>"Many FOMC participants have expressed that they want to see Quantitative Tightening (QT) begin earlier than in the last cycle," Harris says. "Our rates team now expects QT to be announced in May and start that month."</p><p>The Fed has all but admitted it is behind the curve, but a 50-basis-point hike in March remains unlikely, he adds.</p><p>"Should we worry about an inverted yield curve? Historically the yield curve slope for example, the spread between the funds rate and 10-year Treasuries (NYSEARCA:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TBT" target="_blank">TBT</a>) (NASDAQ:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TLT" target="_blank">TLT</a>), has been the best standalone financial indicator of recession risk," Harris says. "However, the yield curve is heavily distorted by huge central bank balance sheets and US bond yields are being held down by remarkably low yields overseas."</p><p>"If Fed hikes lead to smaller-than-normal pressure on long-end yields that is good news for the economy, not bad news."</p><p>Will rate hikes be enough to tackle inflation? Not without a recession, <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/3792684-the-fed-may-need-a-recession" target="_blank">one strategist says</a>.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Weather Man, post: 16724820, member: 137766"] [HEADING=2]Core PCE rises 4.9%, highest since '83; Personal income up 0.3%, spending off 0.6%[/HEADING] Jan. 28, 2022 8:30 AM ET[URL='https://seekingalpha.com/user/1108356/profile?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cbutton%3Aauthor_name%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews']By: Gaurav Batavia[/URL], SA News Editor[URL='https://seekingalpha.com/news/3793028-personal-income-and-outlays#comments']15 Comments[/URL] [IMG alt="Small Shrinking Currency Dollar in Inflation on White Background"]https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/174672992/image_174672992.jpg?io=getty-c-w750[/IMG] YinYang/E+ via Getty Images [LIST] [*]December Personal [URL='https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income']Income and Outlays[/URL]: Income [B]+0.3%[/B] M/M vs. +0.5% consensus and +0.5% prior (revised). The increase in personal income in December primarily reflected an increase in compensation that was partly offset by a decrease in proprietors' income. [*]The Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, hit the highest annual rate since 1983. [*]Consumer spending:[B] -0.6%[/B] M/M vs. -0.5% consensus and +0.4% prior (revised). [*]PCE Price Index: [B]+0.4%[/B] M/M vs. +0.4% consensus and +0.6% prior (unrevised). [*]On Y/Y basis, PCE Price Index [B]+5.8%[/B] vs. +5.8% consensus and +5.7% in November (unrevised). [*]Core PCE Price Index: [B]+0.5% [/B]M/M vs. +0.5% consensus and +0.5% prior (unrevised). [*]Rises [B]+4.9%[/B] Y/Y vs. 4.8% consensus and +4.7% in November. (unrevised) [/LIST] [HEADING=2][URL='https://seekingalpha.com/news/3793035-bofa-calls-for-seven-fed-rate-hikes-in-2022?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Amarket-news%7Csection_asset%3Amain']BofA calls for seven Fed rate hikes in 2022[/URL][/HEADING] [URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TBT']TBT -3.54%[/URL]Jan. 28, 2022 8:35 AM ET[URL='https://seekingalpha.com/news/3793035-bofa-calls-for-seven-fed-rate-hikes-in-2022?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Amarket-news%7Csection_asset%3Amain#scroll_comments']28 Comments[/URL] The fed funds rate will end the year at 1.75% to 2%, with the reduction of the balance sheet starting in May, according to BofA Securities. "Following the continued hawkish pivot at the January FOMC meeting, we expect the Fed to start tightening at the March 2022 meeting, raising rates by 25bp at every remaining meeting this year for a total of seven hikes, and in every quarter of 2023 for a total of four hikes," BofA economists led by Ethan S. Harris write in a note today. "The terminal rate of 2.75-3.00% will be reached in December 2023." "Many FOMC participants have expressed that they want to see Quantitative Tightening (QT) begin earlier than in the last cycle," Harris says. "Our rates team now expects QT to be announced in May and start that month." The Fed has all but admitted it is behind the curve, but a 50-basis-point hike in March remains unlikely, he adds. "Should we worry about an inverted yield curve? Historically the yield curve slope for example, the spread between the funds rate and 10-year Treasuries (NYSEARCA:[URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TBT']TBT[/URL]) (NASDAQ:[URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TLT']TLT[/URL]), has been the best standalone financial indicator of recession risk," Harris says. "However, the yield curve is heavily distorted by huge central bank balance sheets and US bond yields are being held down by remarkably low yields overseas." "If Fed hikes lead to smaller-than-normal pressure on long-end yields that is good news for the economy, not bad news." Will rate hikes be enough to tackle inflation? Not without a recession, [URL='https://seekingalpha.com/news/3792684-the-fed-may-need-a-recession']one strategist says[/URL]. [/QUOTE]
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