Home
What's new
Latest activity
Authors
Store
Latest reviews
Search products
Forums
New posts
Search forums
What's new
New posts
New listings
New products
New profile posts
Latest activity
Members
Current visitors
New profile posts
Search profile posts
Log in
Register
Cart
Cart
Loading…
What's new
Search
Search
Search titles only
By:
New posts
Search forums
Search titles only
By:
Menu
Log in
Register
Navigation
Install the app
Install
More options
Change style
Contact us
Close Menu
Forums
SVTPerformance's Chain of Restaurants
Road Side Pub
SVTP stock pick thread.
JavaScript is disabled. For a better experience, please enable JavaScript in your browser before proceeding.
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an
alternative browser
.
Reply to thread
Message
<blockquote data-quote="Weather Man" data-source="post: 16844597" data-attributes="member: 137766"><p><h3>Yield curve inverts to its deepest level since 1982</h3><p>Nov. 17, 2022 9:48 AM ET<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AGG?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csymbol%3AAGG" target="_blank">iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG)</a>, <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BND?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csymbol%3ABND" target="_blank">BND</a>, <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TLT?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csymbol%3ATLT" target="_blank">TLT</a>, <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IEF?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csymbol%3AIEF" target="_blank">IEF</a><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SHY?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csymbol%3ASHY" target="_blank">SHY</a>, <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IEI?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csymbol%3AIEI" target="_blank">IEI</a>, <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TLH?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csymbol%3ATLH" target="_blank">TLH</a>, <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPTL?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csymbol%3ASPTL" target="_blank">SPTL</a>, <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VGSH?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csymbol%3AVGSH" target="_blank">VGSH</a>, <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VGIT?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csymbol%3AVGIT" target="_blank">VGIT</a>, <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VGLT?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csymbol%3AVGLT" target="_blank">VGLT</a>, <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SCHO?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csymbol%3ASCHO" target="_blank">SCHO</a>, <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SCHR?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csymbol%3ASCHR" target="_blank">SCHR</a>, <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GOVT?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csymbol%3AGOVT" target="_blank">GOVT</a>, <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/US10Y?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csymbol%3AUS10Y" target="_blank">US10Y</a>, <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/US2Y?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csymbol%3AUS2Y" target="_blank">US2Y</a>By: <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/user/53367831/profile?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cbutton%3Aauthor_name%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews" target="_blank">Jason Capul</a>, SA News Editor<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/3909212-yield-curve-inverts-to-its-deepest-level-since-1982#comments" target="_blank">27 Comments</a></p><p></p><p><img src="https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1182560775/image_1182560775.jpg?io=getty-c-w750" alt="Inverted Yield Curve with aerial view of New York City" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></p><p>Melpomenem/iStock via Getty Images</p><p></p><p>The yield curve inversion between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes has deepened to its widest level in four decades. The spread between the 2-year and 10-year extended to a mark of -66 basis points early Thursday, marking the deepest inversion since 1982.</p><p>In early market action, the 10Y (<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/US10Y?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews" target="_blank">US10Y</a>) was up 9 basis points to 3.78% while the 2Y (<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/US2Y?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews" target="_blank">US2Y</a>) gained 9 basis points as well, which pushed the yield to 4.45%.</p><p>Historically speaking, long periods of inversion have predicated future economic downturns.</p><p>Commenting on the current situation, Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/3909078-nasdaq-sp-500-dow-jones-stock-market?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews" target="_blank">stated</a>: “The 2s10s yield curve closing beneath -60bps for the first time since 1982, which is concerning when you consider its historic accuracy as a leading indicator of recessions.”</p><p>“Other yield curves also inverted by even more, with the 3m10yr curve down -6.6bps to -54.2bps. And even the Fed’s preferred yield curve (18m forward 3m yield minus the spot 3m yield) has now spent a full week in inversion territory, closing yesterday at -15.3bps, which is the lowest since March 2020."</p><p>See below a chart between the 10Y and 2Y dating back to the beginning of 2020.</p><p><a href="https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/11/17/saupload_1.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/11/17/saupload_1_thumb1.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></a></p><p>As the yield curve inverts, Treasury ETFs come into focus: (NYSEARCA:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AGG?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews" target="_blank">AGG</a>), (NASDAQ:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BND?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews" target="_blank">BND</a>), (NASDAQ:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TLT?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews" target="_blank">TLT</a>), (<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IEI?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews" target="_blank">IEI</a>), (NASDAQ:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IEF?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews" target="_blank">IEF</a>), (<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SHY?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews" target="_blank">SHY</a>), (<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GOVT?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews" target="_blank">GOVT</a>), (<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VGSH?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews" target="_blank">VGSH</a>), (<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VGIT?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews" target="_blank">VGIT</a>), (<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SCHO?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews" target="_blank">SCHO</a>), (<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SCHR?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews" target="_blank">SCHR</a>), (<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPTL?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews" target="_blank">SPTL</a>), (<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TLH?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews" target="_blank">TLH</a>), and (<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VGLT?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews" target="_blank">VGLT</a>).</p><p>Michael Darda, MKM Partners' chief economist and market strategist, said, "As a practical matter, the inversion means the market expects growth prospects to weaken and hence short rates not to be maintained at current levels for an extended period of time."</p><p>"A spin back in time shows that anytime the longer-dated curve has inverted, slower growth and Fed rate cuts have followed with no exceptions to the rule (in every instance but one an NBER recession also followed)." Darda added.</p><p>While an inverted curve may hint at a recession, Russell Investments believes that the U.S. is not in a downturn at the moment but <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/3909127-russell-investments-not-in-recession-yet-but-will-more-than-likely-be-within-12-months?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews" target="_blank">more than likely will be by the end of 2024.</a></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Weather Man, post: 16844597, member: 137766"] [HEADING=2]Yield curve inverts to its deepest level since 1982[/HEADING] Nov. 17, 2022 9:48 AM ET[URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AGG?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csymbol%3AAGG']iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG)[/URL], [URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BND?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csymbol%3ABND']BND[/URL], [URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TLT?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csymbol%3ATLT']TLT[/URL], [URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IEF?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csymbol%3AIEF']IEF[/URL][URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SHY?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csymbol%3ASHY']SHY[/URL], [URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IEI?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csymbol%3AIEI']IEI[/URL], [URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TLH?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csymbol%3ATLH']TLH[/URL], [URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPTL?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csymbol%3ASPTL']SPTL[/URL], [URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VGSH?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csymbol%3AVGSH']VGSH[/URL], [URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VGIT?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csymbol%3AVGIT']VGIT[/URL], [URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VGLT?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csymbol%3AVGLT']VGLT[/URL], [URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SCHO?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csymbol%3ASCHO']SCHO[/URL], [URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SCHR?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csymbol%3ASCHR']SCHR[/URL], [URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GOVT?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csymbol%3AGOVT']GOVT[/URL], [URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/US10Y?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csymbol%3AUS10Y']US10Y[/URL], [URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/US2Y?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csymbol%3AUS2Y']US2Y[/URL]By: [URL='https://seekingalpha.com/user/53367831/profile?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cbutton%3Aauthor_name%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews']Jason Capul[/URL], SA News Editor[URL='https://seekingalpha.com/news/3909212-yield-curve-inverts-to-its-deepest-level-since-1982#comments']27 Comments[/URL] [IMG alt="Inverted Yield Curve with aerial view of New York City"]https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1182560775/image_1182560775.jpg?io=getty-c-w750[/IMG] Melpomenem/iStock via Getty Images The yield curve inversion between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes has deepened to its widest level in four decades. The spread between the 2-year and 10-year extended to a mark of -66 basis points early Thursday, marking the deepest inversion since 1982. In early market action, the 10Y ([URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/US10Y?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews']US10Y[/URL]) was up 9 basis points to 3.78% while the 2Y ([URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/US2Y?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews']US2Y[/URL]) gained 9 basis points as well, which pushed the yield to 4.45%. Historically speaking, long periods of inversion have predicated future economic downturns. Commenting on the current situation, Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid [URL='https://seekingalpha.com/news/3909078-nasdaq-sp-500-dow-jones-stock-market?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews']stated[/URL]: “The 2s10s yield curve closing beneath -60bps for the first time since 1982, which is concerning when you consider its historic accuracy as a leading indicator of recessions.” “Other yield curves also inverted by even more, with the 3m10yr curve down -6.6bps to -54.2bps. And even the Fed’s preferred yield curve (18m forward 3m yield minus the spot 3m yield) has now spent a full week in inversion territory, closing yesterday at -15.3bps, which is the lowest since March 2020." See below a chart between the 10Y and 2Y dating back to the beginning of 2020. [URL='https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/11/17/saupload_1.png'][IMG]https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/11/17/saupload_1_thumb1.png[/IMG][/URL] As the yield curve inverts, Treasury ETFs come into focus: (NYSEARCA:[URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AGG?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews']AGG[/URL]), (NASDAQ:[URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BND?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews']BND[/URL]), (NASDAQ:[URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TLT?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews']TLT[/URL]), ([URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IEI?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews']IEI[/URL]), (NASDAQ:[URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IEF?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews']IEF[/URL]), ([URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SHY?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews']SHY[/URL]), ([URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GOVT?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews']GOVT[/URL]), ([URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VGSH?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews']VGSH[/URL]), ([URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VGIT?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews']VGIT[/URL]), ([URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SCHO?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews']SCHO[/URL]), ([URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SCHR?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews']SCHR[/URL]), ([URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPTL?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews']SPTL[/URL]), ([URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TLH?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews']TLH[/URL]), and ([URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VGLT?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews']VGLT[/URL]). Michael Darda, MKM Partners' chief economist and market strategist, said, "As a practical matter, the inversion means the market expects growth prospects to weaken and hence short rates not to be maintained at current levels for an extended period of time." "A spin back in time shows that anytime the longer-dated curve has inverted, slower growth and Fed rate cuts have followed with no exceptions to the rule (in every instance but one an NBER recession also followed)." Darda added. While an inverted curve may hint at a recession, Russell Investments believes that the U.S. is not in a downturn at the moment but [URL='https://seekingalpha.com/news/3909127-russell-investments-not-in-recession-yet-but-will-more-than-likely-be-within-12-months?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews']more than likely will be by the end of 2024.[/URL] [/QUOTE]
Insert quotes…
Verification
Post reply
Forums
SVTPerformance's Chain of Restaurants
Road Side Pub
SVTP stock pick thread.
Top