Used car prices about to go into free fall

gimmie11s

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New car prices have also declined for 3 months in a row. That number is still "over" MSRP, but the trend is that prices are coming down.
 

13COBRA

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No. Dealers are unwilling to pay over mmr especially when they’re up against rental companies whom are paying ransom like pricing and can write them down over time. The carmax and carvanas are there too adding to as well.

Dealers pay over MMR, every single day.
 

Weather Man

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New car prices have also declined for 3 months in a row. That number is still "over" MSRP, but the trend is that prices are coming down.

People are being trained to order and avoid over MSRP pricing. Small example: our family biz uses a lot of work trucks. We haven't bought lot stock for over a year and a half and now only order because we can get under MSRP that way. Lot stock is $10,000 over.
 

gimmie11s

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People are being trained to order and avoid over MSRP pricing. Small example: our family biz uses a lot of work trucks. We haven't bought lot stock for over a year and a half and now only order because we can get under MSRP that way. Lot stock is $10,000 over.

For every person that orders a new vehicle, I can show you 20 that pay over MSRP.

The point you make is valid, but bears 0 relevance on why prices are declining.
 

13COBRA

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New car prices have also declined for 3 months in a row. That number is still "over" MSRP, but the trend is that prices are coming down.

New car prices, or new car SALES prices?

Where are you getting the information from?
 

sonicx

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Dealers pay over MMR, every single day.
You’re right. :) But there’s also dealers whom aren’t and guess that’s where my brain went when I typed it :$ because those who ain’t, got empty lots. Although MMR isn’t necessarily correct or true pricing either just one companies proprietary system value which people (right or wrong) often use. A truer scale would be to use vauto/ stock wave although there’s bias within that too.
 

13COBRA

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You’re right. :) But there’s also dealers whom aren’t and guess that’s where my brain went when I typed it :$ because those who ain’t, got empty lots. Although MMR isn’t necessarily correct or true pricing either just one companies proprietary system value which people (right or wrong) often use. A truer scale would be to use vauto/ stock wave although there’s bias within that too.

I mean, I'm not sure what you mean by bias in Stockwave. The user sets the preferences...so if it's biased, then the user is biased. Stockwave is just a facilitating program that is more or less a calculator working with the variables the user has assigned to it.

My lot is pretty empty, especially compared to what it generally looks like. Probably down 70%. Sales are about even YOY. I have more vehicles sold in 1 day on lot status, than vehicles sold on days 2-30...combined. Just had 6 more come off the truck this morning. 5 delivered today, 1 is going tomorrow morning at 10am.
 

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My lot is pretty empty, especially compared to what it generally looks like. Probably down 70%.
One of the Lexus dealerships close to me, big name guy in the car business, his Lexus lot used to have easily over 100 brand new vehicles at a time.
Now, it's like he's lucky to have 10 on the lot. What a night and day difference.
 

13COBRA

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Thanks for sharing! I had read JP Morgans Q1 insights on the auto industry but hadn't seen that article yet.

One of the Lexus dealerships close to me, big name guy in the car business, his Lexus lot used to have easily over 100 brand new vehicles at a time.
Now, it's like he's lucky to have 10 on the lot. What a night and day difference.

Yep. I usually stock, new and used about 250 vehicles.

I have 52 as we speak.

About $11mil in inventory, down to $1.6mil.
 

tones_RS3

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Yep. I usually stock, new and used about 250 vehicles.

I have 52 as we speak.

About $11mil in inventory, down to $1.6mil.
Wow, that's terrible.
He's a got A LOT more used vehicles than he does new vehicles that's for sure. lol


Here is an overhead shot of the dealership. Where I am showing is usually all filled to the max with new vehicles.
Untitled.jpg
 

Corbic

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Thanks for sharing! I had read JP Morgans Q1 insights on the auto industry but hadn't seen that article yet.



Yep. I usually stock, new and used about 250 vehicles.

I have 52 as we speak.

About $11mil in inventory, down to $1.6mil.

Opperational Cost Savings and increases cash liquidity!

Overall sales numbers the same?
 

sonicx

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I mean, I'm not sure what you mean by bias in Stockwave. The user sets the preferences...so if it's biased, then the user is biased. Stockwave is just a facilitating program that is more or less a calculator working with the variables the user has assigned to it.
I think it’s a good system. It’s own by Cox. Things could be manipulated to favor different outcomes. Just like a number rank… what you consider a 3.8 i might a 3.5 :)
 

13COBRA

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It’s own by Cox. Things would be manipulated to favor different outcomes. Just like a number rank… what you consider a 3.8 i might a 3.5 :)

The CR doesn't have anything to do with Cox. It has EVERYTHING to do with the individual CR writer. Which in my opinion, is complete and total bullshit.

I just bought a 2020 Mazda CX5 from Manheim New York. Has 13,853 miles...was a 4.7CR, showed up and needed $4500 of body work done to it and parts replaced. Insane.
 

sonicx

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The CR doesn't have anything to do with Cox. It has EVERYTHING to do with the individual CR writer. Which in my opinion, is complete and total bullshit.

I just bought a 2020 Mazda CX5 from Manheim New York. Has 13,853 miles...was a 4.7CR, showed up and needed $4500 of body work done to it and parts replaced. Insane.
Never said it did. Just said cox owns stockwave. And you agree with me about the numbers on cr report ;)
 

Tezz500

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69.7 months.

As far as negative equity... it's hard to say. People who traded, won't be in any different shape than they would be in normal times, because they were receiving a higher trade value. There will be people who purchased without a trade, and without putting cash down that will be upside down.

It'll definitely be interesting.



Varies by vehicle.

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Anyone else ready for Ford to hit $3/ Share again?
 

365 Saleen

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I work at a Chevrolet/Cadillac Dealership. Pre Covid we would have 450 new vehicles on the lot. If we have 20 now I would be surprised. Everything we get in is either sold, or will be sold in less than a week.
My wife has been looking for a large SUV, something that will hold 8 people. She currently has an 06' Equinox that just turned over 70k miles.
When the kids come out to visit for 2 weeks in the summer it is always nice to have a large vehicle that everyone can fit in. We would usually rent a Suburban or Expedition. Problem is that rental prices are over $400 per day for such a vehicle. Times 10 days and taxes and fees and it gets downright insane how much it costs to rent a vehicle.
Today at work they took in a 2019 Suburban with 51K miles. The extended version. My employee cost is $46K. Retail in this area is around $55K for this vehicle.
I brought the Suburban home tonight so she can see it. She says she will own it by Sunday. Lol.
Black on black. LT, no sunroof, but otherwise optioned out pretty good. 5.3 V8 and 6 speed trans, 4WD.
Will need tires and brakes come fall, but otherwise in real good shape.
I am a Ford guy through and through, but finding an Expedition around here is almost impossible and certainly not in this price range.
 

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