Recession of 2022

[q6543]

Being days away from an official negative Q2 print on July 28, and Atlanta FED predicting minus 2% , it seems it's a forgone conclusion.

That being said the white house is already playing the "definition" game with language.

Just wondering how every one has enjoyed the recession that we are already 6 months into??

 

[TerminatoRS]

If it walks like a recession, talks like a recession, and shits like a recession, it's a damn recession.

Similar to:
If it walks like a woman, yip yaps like a woman, and whines like a woman, it's a friggin' woman.

Nothing more than word games meant to deceive the gullible masses.

 

[BOOGIE MAN]

Similar to:
If it walks like a woman, yip yaps like a woman, and whines like a woman, it's a friggin' woman.

Unless it has a dick

 

[gimmie11s]

Ive been saying we are in recession for months and months.

Everyone be like "no way..." "pent up demand bro!"

 

[TerminatoRS]

Unless it has a dick

I'm not sure genitalia matters these days. Hell, I don't have a horn coming out of my head, but I could wake up tomorrow and decide I'm a unicorn.

 

[SilverStreak02]

That’s what they meant when they kept talking about a “smooth landing”. They weren’t actually talking about the economy, but more the rhetoric they would use to soften the reality of the situation. Can’t have the snowflakes butthurt …..god knows they already get enough of that in life….

 

[lOOKnGO]

They claim unemployment rate is down, not counting the peeps who just quit looking. I'm as busy as I want to be. 12 hour days seem to be the new norm for me, even pick away at small jobs during the weekends. We are spending money like sailors on leave though. Fuel cost is now at $2000+ a month. Food cost down on average.

 

[Blown 89]

All of the people that spent the past few years saying everything was fine have a plate of crow coming.

 

[9397SVTs]

 

[13COBRA]

Furstenau Wealth Update
July 25, 2022​

A lot of people are worried that a recession may be in our future. Some think it may already be here.

Unemployment is low (3.6 percent), and inflation is high (9.1 percent). Both tend to occur when an economy is experiencing strong growth. That makes it difficult to believe the United States is in a recession, but some data is pointing that way.

Last week, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow estimated that economic growth in the United States was -1.6 percent for the second quarter of 2022, after adjusting for inflation. They measured economic growth using gross domestic product or GDP, which is the value of all goods and services produced in the United States over a specific period of time. GDPNow is based on a simple, unadjusted mathematical model. It is not an official reading, and the model tends to be a bit volatile. For example:

· On April 29, when relatively little data was available for the second quarter, it was +1.9 percent.
· On May 17, as retail trade and industrial production statistics filtered in, it was +2.5 percent.
· On July 1, when construction spending and manufacturing data came out, it was -2.1 percent.
· Last week, after housing starts were released, it was -1.6 percent.

The Atlanta Fed’s estimate becomes more accurate as more data is added. It tends to be most accurate near the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BES)’s official GDP release date, reported a source cited by Jeff Cox of CNBC.

Since the United States economy shrank by 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2022, that would mean the U.S. has experienced two quarters of declining economic growth. Technically, that’s a recession.

Not everyone expects GDP to shrink. Bloomberg surveyed economists and found they anticipate 0.5 percent growth in the second quarter, which would be an improvement on the first quarter.

There is an important distinction between the two quarters. The slowdown in the first quarter was caused by surging imports and slowing exports, which is unusual. The slowdown in the second quarter may be caused by a slowdown in consumer spending, which is the primary driver of U.S. economic growth, and business spending.

The next BEA’s GDP numbers will be released this Thursday, July 28.

Last week, Randall Forsyth of Barron’s reported that major U.S. stock indices gained. Yields on shorter maturity Treasuries rose last week, while yields on Treasuries with maturities of one year or longer fell.

 

[Blk04L]

It's just transitionary recession

 

[HuntFishCobra]

Labor force participation rate is still ~1.1% below pre-pandemic level.

 

[HudsonFalcon]

Very telling when the WH issues a Sunday Press Release changing the definition of what a recession is. Linguistic propaganda at its finest.

 

[gimmie11s]

Very telling when the WH issues a Sunday Press Release changing the definition of what a recession is. Linguistic propaganda at its finest.

Exactly.

The R word is here.

The hilarious thing is this idiotic Admin could reverse the whole thing immediately if they weren't so antagonistic to small business, entrepeneuriship, oil, coal, natural resource energy, and "all the things" that have made us successful for 246 years.

Come on man! You know, the thing!

 

[q6543]

I wonder if there will be a "recession misinformation" narrative crafted?

Boot people off media for talking about it being real.

 

[SolarYellow]

Why do people move the goalposts?

 

[PhoenixM3]

Why do people move the goalposts?

When you’re on the losing team, it’s one of the few plays left.

 

[ford fanatic]

These are the same people that want you to believe gas is down .70 cents, no, it's still up $2.30...

 

[BlueSnake01]

I mean how many recessions have we had in the past 15 years or so? Im pretty positive i've been hearing about a recession since 07 almost every other year lol

 

[gimmie11s]

I mean how many recessions have we had in the past 15 years or so? Im pretty positive i've been hearing about a recession since 07 almost every other year lol

1, this will make 2.