The housing market

Dusten

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I hear Seattle is a traffic nightmare (roommate moved there, visits us 2-3 times a year). Worse than any where in the SF Bay Area.
That and constant rain, no thanks.

The traffic in Seattle is a mess. But where I live up north, it's non existent, hence living here.

The rain, you get used to it. It actually rains less in volume than most major cities. It's just the frequency.
 

svtfocus2cobra

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I hear Seattle is a traffic nightmare (roommate moved there, visits us 2-3 times a year). Worse than any where in the SF Bay Area.
That and constant rain, no thanks.

It's not that bad. Worst part is the ultra liberal state government that keeps increasing taxes and threatening our gun rights. Luckily most of the really restrictive gun laws proposed this year were shot down in committee. But other than that, pretty much all of my friends that got stationed here for 3 years are planning to move back because they loved it here. The rain part is over-stated usually. It's been sunny and like 65-70 degrees here the past week.
 

RDJ

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I spent almost two years kicking around Oregon and southern Washington. I loved it there but both states have been invaded by the liberal disease from kommiefornia. I have heard that both states are being considered for annexation by the gov't in Sacramento. don't think I would want to move back to watch the demise of such beautiful scenery

It's not that bad. Worst part is the ultra liberal state government that keeps increasing taxes and threatening our gun rights. Luckily most of the really restrictive gun laws proposed this year were shot down in committee. But other than that, pretty much all of my friends that got stationed here for 3 years are planning to move back because they loved it here. The rain part is over-stated usually. It's been sunny and like 65-70 degrees here the past week.
 

tistan

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With all the resources that exist, why go through the effort?

I've bounced redfin realtor and zillow to get an idea. But in the end I trust my agent.
Because everyone who is buying looks at the zestimate. If you are trying to get top dollar for your home, then getting the zestimate to reflect the true value of the home is very important.
 

svtfocus2cobra

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I spent almost two years kicking around Oregon and southern Washington. I loved it there but both states have been invaded by the liberal disease from kommiefornia. I have heard that both states are being considered for annexation by the gov't in Sacramento. don't think I would want to move back to watch the demise of such beautiful scenery

I've spent a good amount of time in other states, and the only ones I would consider equally as beautiful visually is Oregon, Montana, Wyoming, and Utah.
 

Dusten

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Because everyone who is buying looks at the zestimate. If you are trying to get top dollar for your home, then getting the zestimate to reflect the true value of the home is very important.

I wouldn't say everyone. When we bought our house we just went off comps.

The issue with those three sites is none account for my shop.

They all list my house near the value of homes that have sold near me. But none have the finished shop like I do.

Good thing I'm not selling for another 10+ years
 

OETKB

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Comps are the end all be all. Those, and what anyone is willing to pay. It's what the appraisers look at, which is what the banks and realtors look at.

Zestimates can be a nuisance by distracting buyers with erroneous valuations, but it's the comps that matter, not Zillow's algorithms.
 

OETKB

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Zillow Zestimates
Exhibit A

This graph changed wildly every few weeks for five years. I only know because I owned the home for 11 years and sold it last summer. And Redfin, whose technology I tend to trust more values it $40K over what Zillow currently does. Algorithms are fun, but they aren't accurate on unique properties. Mine had a 2000 ft walkout basement, and on the golf course, and was 45 years old ready for a roof, paint, kitchen and HVAC. Not every home in the neighborhood was on the golf course, and Zillow just isn't dialed in on all that.

Screen Shot 2018-03-21 at 4.50.50 PM.png
 

svtfocus2cobra

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I wouldn't say everyone. When we bought our house we just went off comps.

The issue with those three sites is none account for my shop.

They all list my house near the value of homes that have sold near me. But none have the finished shop like I do.

Good thing I'm not selling for another 10+ years

I remember when you posted your house when you bought it. That place is badass and I wouldn't sell it either. Especially being up north there. Such a beautiful area that will continue to grow.
 

Dusten

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Zillow Zestimates
Exhibit A

This graph changed wildly every few weeks for five years. I only know because I owned the home for 11 years and sold it last summer. And Redfin, whose technology I tend to trust more values it $40K over what Zillow currently does. Algorithms are fun, but they aren't accurate on unique properties. Mine had a 2000 ft walkout basement, and on the golf course, and was 45 years old ready for a roof, paint, kitchen and HVAC. Not every home in the neighborhood was on the golf course, and Zillow just isn't dialed in on all that.

View attachment 1475150

To kind of back this up, here's zillow first and redfin second. Redfin is much more stable.

8607068b0e7a146a44801f52afac055f.jpg
55399da014a8b4e0529962669a891c85.jpg
 

Dusten

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I remember when you posted your house when you bought it. That place is badass and I wouldn't sell it either. Especially being up north there. Such a beautiful area that will continue to grow.

Thanks.

We just spent a fortune last year having both roofs done and some chimney repairs. Couple that with a bit of remodeling and it's foolish to sell anyways.
 

HISSMAN

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I bought my first house in 2001 for $158,000 (2,100 sq ft) New construction. I sold it in 2011 for $239,000. The only thing we did to it was tile the kitchen and two full and on half bath. West Virginia baby!

We purchased my current home 4,700 sq ft in 2011 for $475,000. It recently appraised for $620,000. We basically stole it from a pair of idiots. I currently owe $220,000. Once the kids move out, I am selling for a small ranch style and kicking back. Even if the bottom falls back out again, I feel pretty secure.
 

tistan

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Comps are the end all be all. Those, and what anyone is willing to pay. It's what the appraisers look at, which is what the banks and realtors look at.

Zestimates can be a nuisance by distracting buyers with erroneous valuations, but it's the comps that matter, not Zillow's algorithms.

This true, but the bank runs the comps an offer is under contract, and people check Zillow before they make their offer. A good real estate agent will do what it takes to get the appraisal to work.
 

OETKB

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This true, but the bank runs the comps an offer is under contract, and people check Zillow before they make their offer. A good real estate agent will do what it takes to get the appraisal to work.
I agree that the Zestimate distracts buyers who don't know better, but the bank doesn't run the comps, the appraiser does. And as far as a realtor influencing the actual appraisals, the bank orders and pays for the appraisal, not the realtor.
 

OETKB

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This true, but the bank runs the comps an offer is under contract, and people check Zillow before they make their offer. A good real estate agent will do what it takes to get the appraisal to work.
I agree that the Zestimate distracts buyers who don't know better, but the bank doesn't run the comps, the appraiser does. And as far as a realtor influencing the actual appraisals, the bank orders and pays for the appraisal, not the realtor.

What's also important to understand is that these mortgage lenders package these mortgages up and sell them in bundles, so they have certain protocols they have to go through. The bank-hired appraiser is independent of the realtor, the seller and the buyer. He/she is beholden only to the lender.
 

tistan

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What's also important to understand is that these mortgage lenders package these mortgages up and sell them in bundles, so they have certain protocols they have to go through. The bank-hired appraiser is independent of the realtor, the seller and the buyer. He/she is beholden only to the lender.
They are independent, but my realtor is right there putting pressure on the appraiser to not screw up the deal. I've sold several homes for more than they should have appraised for when compared to comps.
 

OETKB

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They are independent, but my realtor is right there putting pressure on the appraiser to not screw up the deal. I've sold several homes for more than they should have appraised for when compared to comps.
I'll bite. And this is not a challenge (well it is, sorta), but how can your realtor, (who is working for you BTW, and not the buyer who has engaged the mortgage lender, who hires the appraiser) exert pressure on an appraiser who is paid by the lender, and only cares if the lender is happy with his work?
 
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tistan

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I'll bite. And this is not a challenge (well it is, sorta), but how can your realtor, (who is working for you BTW, and not the buyer who has engaged the mortgage lender, who hires the appraiser) exert pressure on an appraiser who is paid by the lender, and only cares if the lender is happy with his work?
She is very high volume and she sends people to lenders. Her team sells over 1000 homes a year. If they want to continue to have her send business their way, then they had better make sure the deals get done.

This is the last home I sold. Even running the comps $290k or $160-165 sqft was the max price she thought I would get. Zillow still only list the value at $288k after I bull shitted an extra 100 sqft. The people who bought were only putting $20k down. So waiting for the appraisal was a bit nerve racking and my realtor knows all the appraisers in the area so she was on the phone with him to get the most out of the appraisal. It appraised for the $304k selling price, which came out to I think $172 a sqft. You can look at comps in the area and see that not much is coming withing $7 a sqft of that sale price.

https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sa...,32.015933,-80.967262_rect/17_zm/?view=public
 
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