Long-range forecasts suggest 2024 hurricane season from hell

03cobra#694 said:

Depends on the age of the home, where it is located and the insurance company. A ton have pulled out of the state. My house was built in 91 to old codes, but has everything updated to current or higher standards including electric roll down shutters. I pay just a tick over $4K. It's 3500 SQ total with a pool and worth about $500K in today's world. My friend just built a new one that's worth 850K and he pays $2,700. I'm in a X zone which is non flood even though I live real close to the Peace River.

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My friend up the road has a house worth about $500k, but he's in a 10 on the 1-10 scale for fire risk. His insurance company cancelled him and the state sponsored? risk pool plan quote was $29k/yr. I'm just waiting for the hammer to fall on me. My house is worth about 3x that, I'm a 9 on the scale, and have the same company he had.

I hope y'all miss the eyes of the storms. Admit it, you like the thrill of a hurricane, you just don't want to drown in your attic.

Hopefully not, tired of dealing with this obnoxious shit at work

What is interesting is that since 2016 we have been in La nina aside over this winter when a strong el nino emerged. What is very interesting is that the el nino is fading fast with lots of thunderstorms along the equator killing el ninio and bringing back la nina conditions are setting to be in control well before the next month.
Coupled with the warmer than normal Gulf temperatures, specifically the moisture getting forced into the plains it will be much like 1990 into 1991 for most of the lower 48.
Here we remember Friday April 26 of '91 for the Andover F5 Tornado, and oddly enough we get another Friday April 26 this year.

Fat Boss said:

My friend up the road has a house worth about $500k, but he's in a 10 on the 1-10 scale for fire risk. His insurance company cancelled him and the state sponsored? risk pool plan quote was $29k/yr. I'm just waiting for the hammer to fall on me. My house is worth about 3x that, I'm a 9 on the scale, and have the same company he had.

I hope y'all miss the eyes of the storms. Admit it, you like the thrill of a hurricane, you just don't want to drown in your attic.

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A house price here is way different than there I've been told numerous times. They don't scare me at all. I sit on the lanai with the shutters rolled down and listen to the shit and wind hit them. As I said, those little 100MPH are party time. The big ones are a real PITA.

03cobra#694 said:

Depends on the age of the home, where it is located and the insurance company. A ton have pulled out of the state. My house was built in 91 to old codes, but has everything updated to current or higher standards including electric roll down shutters. I pay just a tick over $4K. It's 3500 SQ total with a pool and worth about $500K in today's world. My friend just built a new one that's worth 850K and he pays $2,700. I'm in a X zone which is non flood even though I live real close to the Peace River.

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That's not too bad. Back when I lived in Savannah l, we raised a house by the beach above the 100 year flood because there insurance went to $80k a year.

03cobra#694 said:

Oh yee haw. We have another 18 years here till a big one. I don't mind the little 100MPH ones, it's those Cat 5's that suck.

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Michael tore us up and we're 90 miles inland.

fishin-nole said:

Michael tore us up and we're 90 miles inland.

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Panhandle and I think it was a Cat 5? Not surprised with one that big.

Hurricanes are just days off for me
Hardest thing to decide; paid or no pay day off

1Kona_Venom said:

Hurricanes are just days off for me
Hardest thing to decide; paid or no pay day off

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Oh I can’t wait for that shit show.

Working in the electric utility business makes me HATE Florida summers/storm season..

Well I guess I'll be making a ton of money on overtime this year

NateDogg said:

Working in the electric utility business makes me HATE Florida summers/storm season..

Well I guess I'll be making a ton of money on overtime this year

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Who, Pike or somebody like that?

03cobra#694 said:

Who, Pike or somebody like that?

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I work for SECO. Its a cooperative. We serve sumter, citrus, hernando, marion and lake counties. Basically from the Northern Ocala to clermont.

I'm a system operator so I work in the control room. We have alot of pike crews that work on our system, especially during hurricanes.

03cobra#694 said:

Panhandle and I think it was a Cat 5? Not surprised with one that big.

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Cat 4 on day of landfall, NHC upped it to a five after the fact (which everyone knew was gonna happen).

Did the same thing with Andrew

Feels like that's always the prediction lately. Just got to hope fronts come at the right time to make most fish storms.

Blk04L said:

Feels like that's always the prediction lately. Just got to hope fronts come at the right time to make most fish storms.

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Fish storms are the best. The new structures have changed so much.

Assholes can't get weather right 24 hours from now, and never have.

Every time they predict a bad or mild season for something, they are wrong the majority of the time.

HudsonFalcon said:

I believe it. El Niño has made our winter in the Northeast almost nonexistent.

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Our winters are mild by comparison, but it's been relatively nice most of this winter. Been hitting mid/low 30s lately but beautiful weather with intermittent showers. The snow we have had has been about as comparable to hail storm flurries as far as ground coverage.

Source:


Being redundant, but here’s the Source of Source above:

Same chart as above without the best fit line, just uses sources graphing.
Pretty user friendly website in article above for graphing hurricane data gathered from 1980 thru 2023.
Data is from the Rams at Colorado State University, CSU.

Use the pull down menu for a graph that grabs the data from the chart below in the link.




Source:

Lambeau said:

View attachment 1836163View attachment 1836164

Source:

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/04/hurricanes-down.php

Being redundant, but here’s the Source of Source above:

Same chart as above without the best fit line, just uses sources graphing.
Pretty user friendly website in article above for graphing hurricane data gathered from 1980 thru 2023.
Data is from the Rams at Colorado State University, CSU.

Use the pull down menu for a graph that grabs the data from the chart below in the link.

View attachment 1836162


Source:

https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?arch&loc=global

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The shift from El Nino to La Nina has much more to do with storm frequency than climate.

Loss severity has everything to do with property value inflation and migration patterns and very little to do with climate. I roll my eyes whenever I hear insurance losses tied to climate change.

A direct hit to Palm Beach was a nothing burger in 1920 when it was all swampland. Now the median home value is $8mm and it would be a loss event 2x Katrina. This is not because of (((global warming))).

Look up fire frequency and acreage burned next time this is tied to climate change. This is 1/20th what it was 100 years ago.

The black swan insurance event will be a big quake. Japan. Seattle. San Fran. It will be a finacial disaster If one of these is leveled. The biggest loss event remains the Kobe earthquake in 1995. It was 10x Katrina.

VenomousDSG said:

Assholes can't get weather right 24 hours from now, and never have.

Every time they predict a bad or mild season for something, they are wrong the majority of the time.

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24 is being generous. More like 12 if we are honest. Meteorology is job in which you can royally mess up and still be employed.