Real-Estate Bubble Popping?

13COBRA

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Repossessions were a historic low in 2020. They went up a bit in 2021 and a little this year. Still well below 'normal' rates.
 

Double"O"

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Slowed down big time in my area...lots of properties for sale still high and not moving at all
 

Fat Boss

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Apparently the largest May-June drop in Bay Area values since they started recording it in 1990. Bay Area home prices see largest May-to-June drop on record

"In June, the median price of existing single-family houses in the nine-county region declined 7% from the previous month — from just over $1.5 million to $1.4 million, according to data for the California Association of Realtors. That’s the steepest May-to-June dip ever recorded in the association’s regional home sales data, which dates back to 1990."

"In the core Bay Area, Alameda County saw the largest monthly price drop of 8% to $1.42 million. That was followed by San Francisco County with a 6% decline to $1.9 million, Santa Clara County with a 6% drop to $1.82 million, Contra Costa County with a 5% dip to $976,940 and San Mateo County with a 3% drop to $2.16 million."

Totally affordable now.
 

BlueSnake01

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Repossessions were a historic low in 2020. They went up a bit in 2021 and a little this year. Still well below 'normal' rates.
I mean to be fair, weren't all or most auto loans offering 0 payments for up to 6 months in 2020/21?

Add up to the fact of home forbearance plans, no rent payments for a year?, etc + the "free money" that was given. So im sure a nice amount of people are starting to get hurt by that now.
 

13COBRA

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I mean to be fair, weren't all or most auto loans offering 0 payments for up to 6 months in 2020/21?

Add up to the fact of home forbearance plans, no rent payments for a year?, etc + the "free money" that was given. So im sure a nice amount of people are starting to get hurt by that now.

Yes.

BUT, it's still well below 2017, 2018, and 2019.
 

Weather Man

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Apparently the largest May-June drop in Bay Area values since they started recording it in 1990. Bay Area home prices see largest May-to-June drop on record

"In June, the median price of existing single-family houses in the nine-county region declined 7% from the previous month — from just over $1.5 million to $1.4 million, according to data for the California Association of Realtors. That’s the steepest May-to-June dip ever recorded in the association’s regional home sales data, which dates back to 1990."

"In the core Bay Area, Alameda County saw the largest monthly price drop of 8% to $1.42 million. That was followed by San Francisco County with a 6% decline to $1.9 million, Santa Clara County with a 6% drop to $1.82 million, Contra Costa County with a 5% dip to $976,940 and San Mateo County with a 3% drop to $2.16 million."

Totally affordable now.

I think CA ****ed around and found out where the tipping point was. No let up by the D's in adding incentives to leave. There is simply no hope that taxes/homeless/crime problem will ease and easy to see it getting worse.
 

MG0h3

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So many conflicting signals. Went to a restaurant on Sun, closed because staff didn't show up. 2nd restaurant had a buffet only, no menu due to kitchen staff shortage. Small business help wanted signs still up and warehouses still have driver bonus signs up. Drivers I can see because I know a couple independent guys getting out because of fuel and insurance hikes.

When does inflation drive labor force participation back up? Although, with what my daughter is going through with daycare, it really doesn't pay for a married mom to work, the costs are that bad.

The fed keeps saying they want to see the unemployment rate increase slightly.

Signals to them that the economy is cooling and that their measures (raising rates/quantitative tightening) are working.

Unfortunately, the economy behaves like a freight train and it takes a long time for said measures to work.

This is why most will tell you that the Fed normally comes in late, does too much, and for too long.




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Blown 89

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I've had an opening on my Network Operations staff since 12/2021 and in my 16 years here, I've never had so few qualified candidates. Hiring is challenging.
I had 40 interviews lined up this summer....not a single person showed up for their interview. Not one. It's like that every time I try and hire, doesn't matter how much I'm paying either. Every company I talk to is struggling to find employees and the employees they do have are walking all over them. Low skilled labor is going to sink this economy and they're the hardest hit when it goes South.
 

13COBRA

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I had 40 interviews lined up this summer....not a single person showed up for their interview. Not one. It's like that every time I try and hire, doesn't matter how much I'm paying either. Every company I talk to is struggling to find employees and the employees they do have are walking all over them. Low skilled labor is going to sink this economy and they're the hardest hit when it goes South.

I haven't had that hard of a time getting people to interview...but I did go from about 3 interviews to every 5 applicants, down to 2 or 3 per 10.
 

DriftwoodSVT

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I had 40 interviews lined up this summer....not a single person showed up for their interview. Not one. It's like that every time I try and hire, doesn't matter how much I'm paying either. Every company I talk to is struggling to find employees and the employees they do have are walking all over them. Low skilled labor is going to sink this economy and they're the hardest hit when it goes South.

We hired one guy, and he ghosted us on his first day. He went through 2 interviews, accepted the job then was a no-show. He wouldn't even answer a phone call from us.

And the applicants are ridiculous. I get maybe 1-2 a month, and they have zero IT experience, and no business applying for a IT Security job.
 

black4vcobra

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I had 40 interviews lined up this summer....not a single person showed up for their interview. Not one. It's like that every time I try and hire, doesn't matter how much I'm paying either. Every company I talk to is struggling to find employees and the employees they do have are walking all over them. Low skilled labor is going to sink this economy and they're the hardest hit when it goes South.

What industry and what positions are you trying to fill?

2 years ago I jumped from a small engineering firm to a 700+ person firm with a presence across the country.

Just earlier today a former coworker at the small firm reached out that his boss wants to talk to me about a position at an even bigger design-build company.

I'm happy where I'm at but a 25% increase in salary would be extremely hard to turn down.
 

Blown 89

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I haven't had that hard of a time getting people to interview...but I did go from about 3 interviews to every 5 applicants, down to 2 or 3 per 10.
I imagine the work ethic in Missouri is infinitely better than here. Arizona has fully embraced California's elitism at this point. I'm hearing this from vendors and clients around the world. My manufacturer in Canada brought back a bunch of retired employees at a significant pay raise because they couldn't find anyone else.

What industry and what positions are you trying to fill?
I'm in manufacturing and am trying to fill general labor jobs running the machines. I'm either outsourcing everything else or doing it myself.

Ten years ago it was easy to find labor. I want say it's because what used to be minimum wage jobs like In and Out are now $22+ /hour + full benefits and retirement are hard to compete with but they can't find anyone to work either. Nobody seems to know where the labor force went.

Honestly, I want out of Arizona but I'm stuck here until my son turns 18. All available data suggests business will be easier someone else. Everything is pointing to me entering the workforce soon.
 

black4vcobra

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I imagine the work ethic in Missouri is infinitely better than here. Arizona has fully embraced California's elitism at this point. I'm hearing this from vendors and clients around the world. My manufacturer in Canada brought back a bunch of retired employees at a significant pay raise because they couldn't find anyone else.


I'm in manufacturing and am trying to fill general labor jobs running the machines. I'm either outsourcing everything else or doing it myself.

Ten years ago it was easy to find labor. I want say it's because what used to be minimum wage jobs like In and Out are now $22+ /hour + full benefits and retirement are hard to compete with but they can't find anyone to work either. Nobody seems to know where the labor force went.

Honestly, I want out of Arizona but I'm stuck here until my son turns 18. All available data suggests business will be easier someone else. Everything is pointing to me entering the workforce soon.

Out of curiosity I checked what the job openings are at Broan-Nutone in Hartford, WI, where I spent a summer working making $11/hr in 2004. Looks like $18-23 now for assemblers, palletizers, material handlers, etc.


Crazy that fast food can pay that even in higher COL areas.

But ya, everywhere is hiring here. Anyone who is unemployed now is by choice.
 

AustinSN

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The boomers are retiring and there is literally nobody to replace them.
Big problem with the airlines. I think I have told this story here before but whatever.

When my wife was working for one of the legacies, herself, a manager, and the HR manager setup a job recruitment event at a local hotel. The GM said they needed like 33 (if I remember right) employees hired at a minimum and he would take more to get ahead of it.

They interviewed everyone who showed up (all 14 of them, when it was supposed to be over 100), offered 2 people positions, one declined on the spot and the other accepted, then no-showed for orientation.
 

tones_RS3

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I've had an opening on my Network Operations staff since 12/2021 and in my 16 years here, I've never had so few qualified candidates. Hiring is challenging.
Same here.
In my department, we can't find anyone. We had one candidate and he was a joke. LOL

We still need to hire like 5 people, but very few are answering the ads, if at all.
 

sleek98

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I am going to be nervous for the next 18 months unless the job market turns around. In my department I have 5 of 10 over the age of 60 that I will have to start replacing as they retire. I just hope none of them leave before this next tax season or I have a feeling I am going to be royally screwed.
 

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