SVB is Now In the Hands of the FDIC

[Klaus]

Always thought Janet Yellen looked like British comedian Benny Hill.

When she was appointed chair of the fed a market guy I know flipped out and said "She is dove! Look at her, she even looks like a dove!"

I cannot get this out of my head whenever I see her.

 

[Klaus]

PDFd the attached article for anyone that is interested. Cliffs:

Regional bank balance sheets are larded up with commercial real estate loans.
and
Regional banks are the predominant lenders in the commercial real estate market
which
Means that their balance sheets will ****ed as these loans are written down
and
We will see a significant contraction of credit to commercial real estate borrowers.

 

[Klaus]

 

[Silverstrike]

Oh great another train wreck is a coming. I sure notice trains and this admin is interlocked to the extreme.

 

[VegasMichael]

I don't know if commercial real estate(office space and retail) will ever be like it was since so many work from home and buy things online. Last time I was at the shopping mall there were a lot of empty spaces.

 

[Weather Man]

I don't know if commercial real estate(office space and retail) will ever be like it was since so many work from home and buy things online. Last time I was at the shopping mall there were a lot of empty spaces.

Amazon and the like killed malls like malls killed off all the small-town downtowns.

 

[IronSnake]

Best thing that ever happened to small towns was WFH. Brought a lot of smaller communities back to life by giving people the means to live in small towns without having to be poor in the process.

Feds are going to keep poking the bear with rate hikes while depending on other banks/us gov't to bail out these regionals. Eventually it's going to blow up on them. CPI will be the least of their worries

 

[CompOrange04GT]

Amazon and the like killed malls like malls killed off all the small-town downtowns.

Ehh the mall here sucks. Nobody goes there.

Downtown is the place to be. We have a brewery and good food there.

 

[Rb0891]

Out mostly mixed use portfolio is very strong. Rent rates are very strong. Guess I could see how the suburban office and retail sectors are going to be in the dump.

 

[Klaus]

Out mostly mixed use portfolio is very strong. Rent rates are very strong. Guess I could see how the suburban office and retail sectors are going to be in the dump.

I am a seller of industrial and warehouse and would like to get into office. Assets are cheap although headwinds are tricky.

The cap rates in industrial and warehouse are as retarded as anything I have seen in my career.

 

[Klaus]

Good thread.

 

[Rb0891]

I am a seller of industrial and warehouse and would like to get into office. Assets are cheap although headwinds are tricky.

The cap rates in industrial and warehouse are as retarded as anything I have seen in my career.

Interesting. I used to work for a decent sized developer and industrial was almost automatic it seemed at the time. Of course this was 15 years ago or so. The guys I work with now (more equity play than developer) are mostly in to more surburban downtown infill mixed use things. They have been very strong with public incentive of course.

I am curious to see what office does, given the covid stuff. I will say around here though I don't much new product and certainly no spec space being built. My wife's company is slowly mandating a partial return to the office. If that picks up steam there is going to be a significant shortage of space it would seem.

 

[Blown 89]

I don't know if commercial real estate(office space and retail) will ever be like it was since so many work from home and buy things online. Last time I was at the shopping mall there were a lot of empty spaces.

Commercial real estate is still sky high here in Phoenix. Realtors drank the kool-aide and think they're all market experts now and refuse to accept reality.

 

[Klaus]

Interesting. I used to work for a decent sized developer and industrial was almost automatic it seemed at the time. Of course this was 15 years ago or so. The guys I work with now (more equity play than developer) are mostly in to more surburban downtown infill mixed use things. They have been very strong with public incentive of course.

I am curious to see what office does, given the covid stuff. I will say around here though I don't much new product and certainly no spec space being built. My wife's company is slowly mandating a partial return to the office. If that picks up steam there is going to be a significant shortage of space it would seem.

This is the sort of shit that I see right now. Granted it is warehouse but still. LOL you can buy the bonds of Frito Lay at 10% or get 5% in CDs. I have no idea who would find this interesting.

 

[MG0h3]

What’s the situation they call “stagflation?”
High inflation, high unemployment?

I feel a good fookin coming on…

Raised a .25 as expected but indicated a pause coming.

Stagflation will be the period of low or no inflation following deflation or recession.

Feds target is 2% inflation. Disinflation is coming down from our 6-7% towards target. Deflation would be under 2. Recession is contraction or 0 or below.

Think I explained that right. Little groggy post midnight shift.



Sent from my iPhone using the svtperformance.com mobile app

 

[Klaus]

View attachment 1786390

Raised a .25 as expected but indicated a pause coming.

Stagflation will be the period of low or no inflation following deflation or recession.

Feds target is 2% inflation. Disinflation is coming down from our 6-7% towards target. Deflation would be under 2. Recession is contraction or 0 or below.

Think I explained that right. Little groggy post midnight shift.



Sent from my iPhone using the svtperformance.com mobile app

nailed it

 

[IronSnake]

View attachment 1786390

Raised a .25 as expected but indicated a pause coming.

Stagflation will be the period of low or no inflation following deflation or recession.

Feds target is 2% inflation. Disinflation is coming down from our 6-7% towards target. Deflation would be under 2. Recession is contraction or 0 or below.

Think I explained that right. Little groggy post midnight shift.



Sent from my iPhone using the svtperformance.com mobile app

Solid explanation

I am concerned that the thought of the economy just gently gliding down on a breeze to 2% is about as misplaced as possible.

It's going to take loss/pain somewhere for this to happen. And with the fed's seemingly lack of tact/touch, I don't expect them to know when to reel back the reins right before we crash into 0 or below.

 

[Weather Man]

Solid explanation

I am concerned that the thought of the economy just gently gliding down on a breeze to 2% is about as misplaced as possible.

It's going to take loss/pain somewhere for this to happen. And with the fed's seemingly lack of tact/touch, I don't expect them to know when to reel back the reins right before we crash into 0 or below.

I don't know, help wanted signs still up everywhere around here. The boomer retirement labor shortage isn't going away anytime soon.

 

[IronSnake]

I don't know, help wanted signs still up everywhere around here. The boomer retirement labor shortage isn't going away anytime soon.

We are facing that in a bad way at work. Lot of old heads have retired, rightfully so, and left a large vacuum. Problem is most of the folks qualified to replace them plug-n-play are retiring too.

Yet companies are holding out hope that they can attract a 25 year old replacement with 30 years experience willing to work for 15 bucks an hour. This is the pain I think will catch up with the workforce/companies. Too many companies running on fumes employee wise.

 

[Klaus]

Solid explanation

I am concerned that the thought of the economy just gently gliding down on a breeze to 2% is about as misplaced as possible.

It's going to take loss/pain somewhere for this to happen. And with the fed's seemingly lack of tact/touch, I don't expect them to know when to reel back the reins right before we crash into 0 or below.

The simplest definition of inflation is that it is too much money chasing too few goods.

The feds job is to moderate demand. Higher interest decrease demand. Lower rates increase demand.

It attempts to do so in a way that maximizes employment.

These two functions are the only thing the fed does. It is known as the "twin mandate."

So, how does inflation fall? It falls when demand falls. This is not a pleasant experience for the average consumer.

Another way of saying there is too much inflation is to say "I have too much money and there is not enough stuff to buy."

This is not that bad of a problem when the alternative is "I don't have enough money to buy the stuff that I need."

We are headed toward lower inflation but commensurate with that will be an increase in unemployment, corporate defaults, people losing their homes, etc.

You will look back on the good old days when people were pissed because they had to wait 12 months to buy a 100k truck. Which was a pain but not an actual problem. Getting fired and defaulting on your mortgage is a real problem.