Official 2016 Fantasy Football Discussion Thread

[Branhammer]

I know it's really early, but I'm sick of being the Andy Dalton of fantasy football and going 11-2 in the season just to lose the first playoff game, so I'm starting to strategize early. What are your guys' strategies going into this years draft?

I usually go RB heavy right from the start, a lot of times taking RBs with my first two picks. One thing I've noticed, though, is that it seems like CONSISTENT WR play is what wins championships and there are always surprises at the RB position, like Eddie Lacy, a top five pick, being fat piece of ****** shit all last season and a nobody named Devanta Freeman being a rushing machine. I'm considering going heavy at WR this season and only taking one top 20 RB, then hoping to find that sleeper (someone like Jay Ajayi). Also, both my leagues are PPR, one of which is a one-point PPR, so players like Deon Lewis could end up being more valuable than some top 10 RBs.

Hell, Lacy lost weight and who knows....maybe THIS will be his year and he ends up being the steal of the fantasy draft.

I also think I may not take a QB until the very last pick. Both of my leagues are 10 teams and even if I wait until the end, QBs like Bortles, Carr, and Eli Manning are likely to still be available. And I don't see any QB other than MAYBE Newton as a clear top pick.

Also, why is everyone so high on David Johnson? He is projected to be the #1 RB by most analysts and I just don't see it. I have the #5 pick in both my leagues and if it comes down to Johnson vs. a top WR like Hopkins, I'm kind of inclined to go with Hopkins.

What are you guys all thinking?

 

[SLVRBLT]

I usually go RB/WR first two. But my best I found is picking up players of the waiver wire. I picked up Bortles and the other WR Jags i cant remember his name (drafted Robinson too) along with the Browns TE and they pretty much carried me to third place and won $100 lol. I drafted Brees in the second and he was meh all year except for his 7TD he had last year which I started him that week.

I had pretty good luck with rookie RBs too. Obviously looking at the situation the player is in and project how they go. I won the one money league and got third in the other.

 

[Branhammer]

Yeah I am always the most active player in the waivers in both my leagues. I tend to switch out three players minimum from week to week. Usually defense, kicker, and one or two revolving RBs/WRs. I also find that nearly every year, no matter who I draft as my QB, there ends up being a QB on the waivers who plays better. Last year Eli was projected to be a top 10 QB. I ended up dropping him after the first week and picking up Palmer off the waiver and played him every week after that. That's why I don't think I'll draft a QB until my last pick this year. I know I will at least wait until about round 12. Definitely not taking Newton or Rodgers since they'll go in the first 3 rounds and most likely not pay off.

 

[thehunterooo]

I have been stocking up on RBs the past few years early in the draft and it has not worked out. Last year I lost almost my whole team to injury as well so that did not help. I normally finish towards the top of the league but I also have issues in the playoffs.

RBs are scary now as there are so many that get hurt, or if they do come back they lose the job to the back up it feels like (forte) or the backup plays well and it turns into a timeshare for whatever reason. At least with a top WR like brown, jones and such you don't ever have to worry about them losing snaps unless they are hurt. I am going WR-WR if possible and play he RB lottery later on.

 

[Mjavant1985]

Last year sucked for me in FF. I normally do 3 leagues (1 with friends, 1 random money online, 1 svtp if available). Last year I did 2 (Svt & home one) and commissioned both. I didn't do my homework last year either and took players I knew and trusted, which if your #1 & #2 picks were Eddy lacy and Gio Bernard, you probably didn't win your league either. Lol

So I'm glad this year this thread was made early so I can get a feel for rookies as I don't watch much college fball, other than playoff and bowl games.

Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk

 

[Mjavant1985]

I have been stocking up on RBs the past few years early in the draft and it has not worked out. Last year I lost almost my whole team to injury as well so that did not help. I normally finish towards the top of the league but I also have issues in the playoffs.

RBs are scary now as there are so many that get hurt, or if they do come back they lose the job to the back up it feels like (forte) or the backup plays well and it turns into a timeshare for whatever reason. At least with a top WR like brown, jones and such you don't ever have to worry about them losing snaps unless they are hurt. I am going WR-WR if possible and play he RB lottery later on.

I agree with this, as I have valued rb's probably too much as well. And this year seems like they're is an abundance of quality rb's (guys who will get 12-16pts every week).
So this year I will look more for a Wr/Wr/rb approach

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[Klay]

I take the approach that everyone tells you not to take and I draft a QB first. I've kind of come to the conclusion though that it almost doesn't matter who you draft first. My team towards the end of the season usually ends being quite different then who I begin with (due to injuries). I guess it really depends on your league too. I generally finish quite high in my league and won two years ago. I'm pretty active though, so I tend to pick up good players on the waiver and FA.

Maybe this year I'll try going WR heavy early on just to see how it works out.

 

[SLVRBLT]

Theres really four or fivetop tier WRs (Jones, Bryant, Brown, Nelson, Hopkins) but its a deep pool of good WRs as well so theres going to be value later on. Rbs meanwhile theres a scarecity of them, prob will go RB/WR or RB/RB. I see Lacy coming back with a good year, Elliott should be good. Forte in NY too. Will look at it more closely as time comes closer.

 

[venom_inc]

Zero RB is a real strategy this year and I plan on using it if it's available for me at the draft.

 

[Branhammer]

Unless you're in a league with more than 10 teams, I don't see any reason to draft a QB early unless you notice a lot of people drafting backup QBs, which is stupid to me but just means I can stock up on more RBs/WRs and draft my QB in round 7-8.

But let's say you're in a typical 10-team league and everyone is only taking one QB, like you should.

Here are the QBs as ranked by FantasyPros.com:

1. Cam Newton
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Andrew Luck
4. Russell Wilson
5. Ben Roethlisberger
6. Drew Brees
7. Carson Palmer
8. Blake Bortles
9. Tom Brady
10. Eli Manning
11. Tony Romo
12. Derek Carr
13. Phillip Rivers
14. Andy Dalton
15. Marcus Mariota
16. Tyrod Taylor
17. Kirk Cousins
18. Jameis Winstion
19. Matt Ryan
20. Matthew Stafford

So, say all other owners have drafted 1-9 and I have not drafted a QB. I'm not drafting one until the last pick unless someone starts taking backups. Anyone between rank 10-14 would be fine with me and Mariota, Winston, or even Tannehill COULD all have big years. I've done multiple draft simulators and mock drafts on ESPN with real people, and every single time, I've drafted QB with my last pick and every time I've ended up with Dalton, Carr, Rivers, Romo, or Manning. I think out of all of those, Romo is the only one I wouldn't bank my season on because we all know he's going to go on IR again and the Cowboys are going to go 6-10. But any of those others would be totally fine with me and I'd even be fine with Tannehill. It seems like every year, I end up dropping the QB I drafted and picking up one from the waiver anyway.

I have no reason whatsoever to believe that Andrew Luck is worth drafting before round ten. The only QBs I'd consider before round ten would be Rodgers, Newton, or Brady (depending on whether or not he is suspended). But honestly, I'd take a potential break-out RB like Ajayi over those guys too.

 

[venom_inc]

I listen to a fantasy podcast and they had a "stream of the week" segment every week. They picked QBs who were on practically everyone's waiver wire to use as their starting QB that week. We are talking guys like Hoyer, Taylor, Cousins, Bradford, Smith, Carr... When they added up their point total for the entire year, they ended up with the 6th best QB.

 

[sonic_whine2003]

I won my league 2 outta 3 years and like you i used to draft RB early....but man trust me that is the past! I take the best WR/TE in round 1 & 2 then usally a RB in round 3 unless for some reason their is a top tier QB. GOOD LUCK!!!

 

[Branhammer]

IF I do take a RB in the 1st round (I'm the #5 pick in both my leagues), what do you guys think about taking Ezekiel Elliot? He's not projected to go that early, but he is projected to be a top ten pick. My reasoning:

1. David Johnson isn't what I would call a proven bell cow AND has Ellington and CJ who could compete for touches.
2. Todd Gurley MIGHT be injury prone and plays for an offense with no passing game. Rumor has it Goff is not doing well in practice so far and is having a hard time even learning the playbook. Teams may just stack the box against LA.
3. Le'Veon Bell will go #2 at the latest so I most likely won't get him.
4. Adrian Peterson is eventually going to burn out. I thought it was going to be last year. I was wrong. Now I think it'll be this year. I could be wrong again, but I will never draft him in the first round again because the first time I do will be the year the wheels fall off.
5. Elliot was drafted #4 buy the team with the best OL in football. The Cowboys will most likely use him up during his rookie contract. In 2014, Demarco Murray had 392 rushes and 57 receptions for a total of 2261 yards and 13 TDs and most people believe Elliot has more talent than Murray ever did. I could easily see Elliot getting close to 400 total touches this season.

So which RB out of the ones above, minus Bell, would you guys take if you were the #5 pick and wanted to draft a RB first?

 

[sonic_whine2003]

If i had to take a RB out of the list besides Bell id go Gurley.....but I would suggest you don't, only Bell is worth taking in 1st round and thats coming from a Browns fan.

 

[Branhammer]

Anybody doing mock drafts? I think I'm getting close to triple digits as far as how many I've done. I also started applying things I've learned about statistics in my aircraft maintenance analysis job to football players. I have a spreadsheet with position ranks, avg PPG, consistency ratings, targets, receptions, and receptions/targets percentage. I have a problem...

Oh and if I don't win at least one of my two leagues this year, everything dies. Everything.

 

[SLVRBLT]

I dont do mocks till a few days before my main money league (late August). That plus you never know what players get injured during that time.

That plus im going for a repeat on the pick'em league.

 

[ViciousJay]

IF I do take a RB in the 1st round (I'm the #5 pick in both my leagues), what do you guys think about taking Ezekiel Elliot? He's not projected to go that early, but he is projected to be a top ten pick. My reasoning:

1. David Johnson isn't what I would call a proven bell cow AND has Ellington and CJ who could compete for touches.
2. Todd Gurley MIGHT be injury prone and plays for an offense with no passing game. Rumor has it Goff is not doing well in practice so far and is having a hard time even learning the playbook. Teams may just stack the box against LA.
3. Le'Veon Bell will go #2 at the latest so I most likely won't get him.
4. Adrian Peterson is eventually going to burn out. I thought it was going to be last year. I was wrong. Now I think it'll be this year. I could be wrong again, but I will never draft him in the first round again because the first time I do will be the year the wheels fall off.
5. Elliot was drafted #4 buy the team with the best OL in football. The Cowboys will most likely use him up during his rookie contract. In 2014, Demarco Murray had 392 rushes and 57 receptions for a total of 2261 yards and 13 TDs and most people believe Elliot has more talent than Murray ever did. I could easily see Elliot getting close to 400 total touches this season.

So which RB out of the ones above, minus Bell, would you guys take if you were the #5 pick and wanted to draft a RB first?

With Romo on hos last leg and possibility of getting injured again as well as having one of the best lines in the league I think it's a safe bet Elliot will be a work horse.

 

[Branhammer]

With Romo on hos last leg and possibility of getting injured again as well as having one of the best lines in the league I think it's a safe bet Elliot will be a work horse.

I agree. In fact, after reading this article:

http://www.nfl.com/fantasyfootball/...against-todd-gurley-as-a-topfive-fantasy-pick

...I'm pretty against the idea of even taking Gurley in the first round. His odds of repeating last seasons numbers are low in that slow-paced offense. One thing I've learned about fantasy football is that the key is to minimize risk and give yourself the best chance to win. Taking Gurley in the first round does not accomplish that. Your best bet is to take players with minimal risk and high reward in the early rounds and go for the gamble, break-out candidates in later rounds.

 

[byeofcr]

Seems like a no brainer to me to do it but that pesky gut feeling that maybe i should keep him... The trade proposed to me in a 2 qb league
Cutler And simeon for Dak and tj yeldon
I have palmer as my other qb And i went with just filling my roster with trade bait.
I took dak higher than i should but i dont know if should trade him before i see any meaningful football.. But what say you football gurus

 

[Coiled03]

Wound up with Brees as my QB in my league. Not sure how I feel about that. Everyone says is O-line is horrid this year.

Any thoughts?