SVTP stock pick thread.

q6543

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I'm sure after the drawdown advisors have told him to renegotiate lower.

Say...$42.0 .. that's his whole bit..so..
Maybe 42.069
With the stock trading at 40.xx that's what wall st. Must think too.
 

Weather Man

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Fat Boss

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I added to my ARRY on Monday. The five day chart is looking up lol. Management thought they were in good enough position to acquire another company in Jan. At some point the solar stocks have to take off, right?

 

q6543

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Walmart and target whiff is a big deal..

It was understood that... price increases are being passed through to consumers, increasing profit margins.

Not the case at all, costs rose, and are still rising faster than they could raise prices.
Starting to look like a spiral... it's actually really bad... and I'm a HUGE perma bull.

Frankly if 2021 was our secular blowoff top.... it was lame.
Still bullish though... even in a bear market.
 

Weather Man

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I think the big ugly is yet to come.

S&P 3,600 is the new bull case; sell rips and watch yen for a crash warning - BofA

SPY -0.61%May 20, 2022 7:40 AM ET6 Comments
Pessimism is pervasive across the equity market and traders are telling BofA Securities that a further 8% drop in the S&P 500 (SP500) (NYSEARCA:SPY) is a bullish scenario.
"Heard on the Street: '3600 is the new bull case,'" strategist Michael Hartnett said in his weekly Flow Show note Friday.
U.S. GDP was $24.4T in Q1 and the global equity market cap collapse since the Nov 2021 peak has been $23.4T.
The "stock market basically dropped by 1 US economy in 6 months," Hartnett said.
But equity flows are not at capitulation levels and his stance is still "sell-any-rips."
Investors should also watch the yen (FXY) as pretty much every stock market crash in the last 40 years has seen "sharp, quick yen appreciation.
Of the "19 US equity bear markets past 140 year (the) average price decline = 37.3% & average duration 289 days," he noted.
IF that were to be repeated, today's bear market ends on Oct. 19 2022 with the S&P at 3,000 and the Nasdaq (COMP.IND) (QQQ) at 10,000. The yen and the Swiss franc are hedges for this.

The bearish unanticipated cyclical risks are:
Wall Street assets being 6.3x U.S. GDP. As "seen in 2020 the quickest route to a deep recession is via a Wall St crash (and vice-versa)."

Housing and labor markets are "only just at inflection points." The U.S. home purchase index is falling. Retail layoffs could sting as retail has accounted for 12% of all job gains over the past two years and leisure and hospitality has accounted for 33%.
Inflation "hinders Fed reaction function, polarization hinders fiscal policy reaction function in a crisis, recession."
"Banks (are) arguably safest part of financial system yet (BKX) index trades below highs of '07, '18, pre-COVID '19. A break below 100 would scream recession and/or credit event (and) tighter lending standards in coming quarters."
The "leveraged loan market (is) cracking, systemic risk from bond/stock/real estate deleveraging in risk parity (RPAR), private equity (PSP) high, PE exposure to syndicated loans high, sovereign wealth funds, credit events in speculative tech, shadow banking, US consumer buy now, pay later models, European credit/banks/housing, Emerging Markets, zombie corporations, and so on ... and the Fed has not yet begun QT."
Goldman Sachs recently issued its playbook for a recession.
 

VegasMichael

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I think the big ugly is yet to come.

S&P 3,600 is the new bull case; sell rips and watch yen for a crash warning - BofA

SPY -0.61%May 20, 2022 7:40 AM ET6 Comments
Pessimism is pervasive across the equity market and traders are telling BofA Securities that a further 8% drop in the S&P 500 (SP500) (NYSEARCA:SPY) is a bullish scenario.
"Heard on the Street: '3600 is the new bull case,'" strategist Michael Hartnett said in his weekly Flow Show note Friday.
U.S. GDP was $24.4T in Q1 and the global equity market cap collapse since the Nov 2021 peak has been $23.4T.
The "stock market basically dropped by 1 US economy in 6 months," Hartnett said.
But equity flows are not at capitulation levels and his stance is still "sell-any-rips."
Investors should also watch the yen (FXY) as pretty much every stock market crash in the last 40 years has seen "sharp, quick yen appreciation.
Of the "19 US equity bear markets past 140 year (the) average price decline = 37.3% & average duration 289 days," he noted.
IF that were to be repeated, today's bear market ends on Oct. 19 2022 with the S&P at 3,000 and the Nasdaq (COMP.IND) (QQQ) at 10,000. The yen and the Swiss franc are hedges for this.

The bearish unanticipated cyclical risks are:
Wall Street assets being 6.3x U.S. GDP. As "seen in 2020 the quickest route to a deep recession is via a Wall St crash (and vice-versa)."

Housing and labor markets are "only just at inflection points." The U.S. home purchase index is falling. Retail layoffs could sting as retail has accounted for 12% of all job gains over the past two years and leisure and hospitality has accounted for 33%.
Inflation "hinders Fed reaction function, polarization hinders fiscal policy reaction function in a crisis, recession."
"Banks (are) arguably safest part of financial system yet (BKX) index trades below highs of '07, '18, pre-COVID '19. A break below 100 would scream recession and/or credit event (and) tighter lending standards in coming quarters."
The "leveraged loan market (is) cracking, systemic risk from bond/stock/real estate deleveraging in risk parity (RPAR), private equity (PSP) high, PE exposure to syndicated loans high, sovereign wealth funds, credit events in speculative tech, shadow banking, US consumer buy now, pay later models, European credit/banks/housing, Emerging Markets, zombie corporations, and so on ... and the Fed has not yet begun QT."
Goldman Sachs recently issued its playbook for a recession.
It could really get nasty. Interest rates will keep going up which compels some investors to leave the equity markets and go to bonds and cd's. I've heard possibilities of stagflation as well which is never a pleasant event.
 

MG0h3

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I was surprised to see Walmart and Target report misses already. Expected it in another quarter or two.

Now I think we will continue to see misses, even with revised expectations. I really think we’re at the tip of the iceberg.

Good news: You can probably slowly start buying in with low risk with a throw a dart at the board strategy.

Also good news, foot locker is up. Prob cause everyone knows they’ll be walking everywhere soon.


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q6543

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I do think Q2 gdp is gonna be negative and then the light bulb goes off...OH MY GOD WE'RE IN RECESSION"... the market has 1 more bad puke... then that'll be the bottom.
I'll fully deploy all cash if it plays like that.
 

MG0h3

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A week ago this was a correction.

Now you got talking heads saying Fed should do a 100bps raise.

Subprime debt defaults increasing on CC and car loans.

We’re still on the uptick of bad news if you ask me.


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MG0h3

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According to S&P, if we close below 3837 today, we’re in a bear market that started in Jan


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